Increasing uncertainty for Crude OIL

Apr 9

Hey Folks,

I am back after a quite long time. Had to take care of some work at my home. so couldn't do trades from past 2 months.

Now as i am back, i was though tracking the geopolitical event as much as i could. and with the recent truce call of Mr. Trump "again" with Iran had Oil crashed nearly 20% the next day.
But with the following event of breaking the ceasefire and attack on Tehran and Lebanon, it is cleared the intention of US, that they are not done and still have some business left with Iranian land. and ofcourse the water in the Strait.

So this has now significantly increased the existing uncertainty of this issue. and nothing can be trusted by no one. At this point war can escalate from meme-fight to land invasion overnight.

that said and technically the price moving in up trend with higher highs and higher lows. We are at another higher low, and could see a new higher high in few days as long the tension exist.

So, I am putting a long position on the crude Oil future with STOP at the previous Higher Low ( ₹8000).

In this case please note that I am aware Expiry of the contract is near and related risk to it.

Thanks, Happy Trading :)

Apr 17

Trade closed: stop reached

what a wonderful stop hit. as soon as the Orange fellow dropped his another skeptic tweet , announcing opening of 'strait of IRAN' now?, yes i quoted this words. the OIL price really took the hit and within single last 4h candle the price broke the higher low level (₹8500) , and didn't took much time to break the SL after that.

This uncertinity was expected and calculated risk.
This sets a good example how much an asset can be influenced by geopolitics and with technicals it is easy to know your exiting levels as per the risk per trade.

the SL could have been set on 8500 level as well, but i was ready to take more risk of 500, as i was back in the action after long. So, the SL should vary to ones risk appetite with utmost discipline, and remember no emotions.