Crude Oil: Bearish Reversal Looms as Geopolitical Premium Fades

Apr 9

Crude oil has recently witnessed a parabolic run, hitting record highs near ₹10,888 on the MCX. However, the technical structure now signals a significant exhaustion. Despite the persistent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, the "geopolitical fever" is showing signs of breaking as the market begins to price in a massive coordinated release of 400 million barrels from the IEA’s emergency reserves. This surge in supply, coupled with a projected demand curb of 1 mb/d due to global economic cooling, creates a strong fundamental bearish case.

Technical Outlook
The daily chart shows a sharp rejection from the psychological 10,500–11,000 zone. The price has breached the immediate moving average support, and a bearish "Mean Reversion" toward the lower Bollinger Band is underway.

Key Resistance: The upside is firmly capped between 12,500 and 15,000, levels that would require a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz to breach.

Immediate Support: The current breakdown below 9,129 (as seen in the chart) validates the bearish momentum.

Downside Target: We expect a sustained slide toward Target 1 (7,500), aligning with the long-term structural demand zone and the 200-day EMA.

Strategy: Sell on rallies toward 9,800, keeping a strict stop-loss above 10,900 for a structural target of 7,500.

Apr 14

Trade closed: target reached

8700. will re-enter on pull back --- only short

Apr 18

Note

re-entered around 8750 night before yesterday

Apr 18

Note

closed at 8000 levels

Apr 18

Note

Trade closed on target achieved at 7500