Hi, thank you for sharing. It is an interesting chart. Would use this to do a pair trade as suggested ie short Gold stocks and buy equivalent gold. Or use this to decide which of the 2 to long? One thing puzzles me is that logic dictates that gold stock should rise strongly to show the cyclical bottom for bot is in. Otherwise what we have is possible retrace before gold falling even further. What is your take on this?
pantheo
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Hey Dan, long time, hope everything is great with you and yours. This one, is industrials vs gold and I'm using it to find inflection areas, as they are negative correlated for the time being. The last 3-4 counter rallies got me long in gold and miners based on this one as well as others that have posted as well. The inflation spread i.e. TIP-TLT gave a good signal at demand zone printing a bullish wick like a month ago, warning like a possible counter move in gold and miners is coming tradingview.com/v/KbDZjzxU/. Sentiment reading in metals was like bottoming at -30 and BPGDM was at 0. Gofo rates also went negative again tradingview.com/v/tHlZ12H0/, while gold's vix was elevating at 61,8 fib area tradingview.com/v/f6b6L82i/. Plus the fact that junior miners were approaching the H&S PO tradingview.com/v/3ea7n3DA/. If you are referring to other chart I posted, which is gold vs miners, tradingview.com/v/4WDEfFoP/ I'm using it to balance the trades on a percentage basis, i.e. 60/40 or 70/30 if the metal or miner stocks are stronger or weaker against each other or to hedge bullion via puts. Regarding your last question, although I have no ability to project or forecast something into the future, gold is in a downtrend right now as we all know, and I believe that this is another short term rally to shake the shorts before reversing down again until the point that everyone will throw the towel and sentiment reach ultra negative readings for a considerable amount of time. GLD tonnage still printing negative outflows even during the current counter move. It's all based on the dollar I guess. If closes convincingly above the upper triangle line on a monthly basis or print a fakey tradingview.com/x/JQn8J3ow/. You must be one of the few here that we have discussed my favourite dollar chart, created something like 2 years ago and posted here tradingview.com/v/CupIk4xx/ Cheers, all the best
P.
DanV
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Wow, that is a very thorough answer. Lots of charts. I will take a look at some of them. Dollar is the main factor in all of these. I agree with you on its breakout of the triangle or fail. I have been of the opinion and still maintain it that this is likely a topping area for DXY. which would suggest Gold and other USD assets could be close to forming a low. Whether this turns out to be just a retracement or reversal we will have to what the ensuing price action. However, Most of the correlated charts and my reading of EW counts on DXY still suggest that this is major congestion area in larger down trend and DXY will retest the last significant low or make new lower low. So either way lots of opportunities ahead.
I am reserving most of my powder for longer term out of the money PUT options on equities for anticipated major reversal on the horizon. Thanks for your analysis and sharing your views.
Will take close look at your charts you provided links above as some of the ratio are new to me. I appreciate it.
pantheo
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Thank you Dan, I agree, lot of opportunities ahead and lot of global troubles and as always we should prepare on a R/R basis to get the most out of them. All my best to you and yours. P.