Summary: Buy stocks in the year 2020-2022 with sell target 25000 in the year 2026
The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.
After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".
concerning your PS: I hope you and I will still exist over the next decade... ;-)
ChartArt
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Sergey Tarasov has conducted cycle research using the Dow Jones Industrial Index from 1789 on monthly data developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Bill
Meridian. When he made the reseach it was the last 219 years of price data (22 September 2008).
His process of cyclic analysis consisted of these major steps:
1) The normalization of original data
2) The identification of the most powerful cycles by
application of spectrum analysis
3) The generation of the projection line based on these cycles
Sergey Tarasov's most important cycles which he discovered in the Dow Jones price data going back to 1789 were 40 months, 5.9 years and 9.1 years. He then created a superposition of these three cycles (shown on page 6 of 9). This teal colored projection line for all three cycles together shows a peak to occur in the middle of the year 2018 and a cycle low in the last quarter of the year 2020. His cycle work also showed a low to occur in the year 2014, which was almost correct with the actual low in the Dow Jones uptrend occuring in 2015 (this "Verification" forecast was made in the year 2008 using prices from 1789 until the year 1986). The only really good fit between the cycle projection and the Dow Jones price data occured in the year 2000-2001 though (with both cycle and price having a peak).
StarCapital Research has created a bearish S&P 500 forecast using the Shiller-CAPE.
Quote: "Research has shown that there existed a strong relationship between the cyclically adjusted Shiller-CAPE and long-term equity returns in the past." Based on their findings they made a forecast what returns equity investors can expect over the next 10-15 years.
Their 'worst case' forecast shows a potential crash starting in 2018 and ending in December of the year 2020 at below 800 points on the S&P 500. While their 'average development' forecast shows a mild decline after around the year 2019 until December 2020, which would bring the S&P 500 back down to 2500 points. Their 'light grey corridor' (p=50%) reflects 50% of all observed values and forecasts a decline down to 2000 points on the S&P 500 until the end of the year 2020. And their 'dark grey' 80% of all observed values corridor forecasts a decline of the S&P 500 down to 1700 points until the end of the year 2020.
Stock Traders Almanac called the work of George Lindsay "the finest long-term forecast we have ever seen". Applying the theories of George Lindsay who "predicted the start of history's greatest bull market accurate to 7 Dow points" to the Dow Jones results in a high point ("J" peak) between December 2017 to September 2018, followed by a market crash until around the year 2020.
A slightly shifted presidential cycle by Michael Carr (shifted because the presidential inauguration was changed from March 4 to January 20 in the year 1937) outlines a stock market high in Q1 and a low around September-October 2018.
This seasonal analysis of the last 116 years of mid-term years since 1900 comes to a very similar conclusion. If history repeats Q1 of 2018 would in that case mark a high of the year 2018 and the low would be around September-October 2018.
The Bradley Siderograph long terms turn dates for 2018 are suggesting that a stock market peak could occur in the year 2018 around August 28, followed by a decline until around January 22, 2019 (blue colored line on related chart link below).
Another chart by Tom McClellan also shows a potential top in Q1 2018 for the Dow Jones. In this analysis he flipped the historical chart of the Dow Jones upside down going back to the year 2008.
There is a interesting relationship between the Dow Jones and Commercials' Position in Eurodollar set forward by 54 weeks (plus or minus to weeks), which Tom McClellan discovered. It suggests a stock market peak in Q1 2018, with a final peak on Friday, May 18. Followed by a crash lasting until September 21, 2018.
Tom McClellan has found a potential chart pattern match between the Dow Jones and the price of Crude Oil set forward by 10 years. McClellan writes that "this relationship has been working since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in the year 1896 and that this approach suggests a top in the stock market in June 2018 followed by a major low in January 2019 and a sideways-to-up movement into early 2024.