7 months back, I suggested dollar index moving in a choppy manner post making a firstname.lastname@example.org from March 2015 to Sep2016 - Giving breakout & kissing the targets of 100.50 & later 103.50
The move from 103.80 level looks very choppy & clumsy, so I am having a favor for dollar index , which is not confirmed yet (I shall wait for market confirmation) - it could be wave -email@example.com in wave-5 which is done from Triangle end@ 94.45 & posts that wave -2 just ended@99. 19 recent low -could head next upside in wave-3- A scenario next
Or Alternate Scenario
It could be Wave-5 completed at 103.80 & recent fall from 103.80 could be wave-a --can look for wave-b upside so what conclusion we draw from here is in both the cases -we shall be looking for an upside wave or leg which is bad for our equity markets.
USDINR (Dollar Rupee)
If the Dollar Index moves upside. Most likely it won't allow Indian Rupee to appreciate much & we know we have a critical level of 66.25 from the previous analysis on USDINR .
The breakout for Dollar Index @94. 45 from the triangle consolidation hit India Markets from the high of 8969 to lows of 7893. Post 7890-7900 zone -It moved up in an explosive manner as dollar index struggled from 103.80's to the current level of 99.19 - So, the conclusion we draw here is any move for dollar index , which could be wave-3 or wave -b (not confirmed yet by the markets) is the probable or most likely scenario to unfold- then Indian Markets could be in the problem so the bulls have to be careful.
In all the charts below -you can the click & press load bar feature which will put future bars on the chart
You would love to read my earlier analysis
Looking for 100.50 & Above 100.50 to 103.50 -------- Bang on Target Achieved
USDINR- Rupee Capsule Power Nifty & Bank Nifty- Nifty & BankNifty did explosive move post having dollar rupee capsule
USDINR 2016 Diary
India Nifty- Going into 2017 -Painful C-wave
Latest Analysis on Nifty - Happy Republic Day
One of the favorites - as I crossed border professionalism- Chaap Daala- Local Traders Language
We got a push from 99.20-99.25 recent low -which is not impulsive but can turn into a bullish case once it crosses 101.05 & sustains which is next hurdle -if 101.05 is done, then 101.75 & moving above 101.75 -most likely it should make a new high above 103.80's
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
Growth Director - TradingView India
YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYcnYveYBNLD-Qp54hvZogw
Yes Rupee weakens,So one side crude oil prices fall ,but on other side indian rupee weakness impact is more in terms of inflation (which can give rate hike by RBI).
Lots of variables
Moral : dollar index up ^ , Nifty down v