Dollar Index & USDINR-India Nifty - Amazing 103.50 -Next clue?

AbhishekHSinghCMT Updated   
ICEUSA:DX1!   None
As a trader, one important lesson which I learnt long ago was patience. Most of us think Patience as a virtue(quality) in the outside world, but when I was exposed to trading arena- I realized patience is not a virtue(quality) but a necessity for trading -if you as a trader want to survive in the flux of buyers & sellers then be disciplined- Market is like a Sea where small boats can disappear if you are not disciplined.

7 months back, I suggested dollar index moving in a choppy manner post making a high@100.71 from March 2015 to Sep2016 - Giving bullish breakout & kissing the targets of 100.50 & later 103.50

What Next?
The move from 103.80 level looks very choppy & clumsy, so I am having a bullish favor for dollar index , which is not confirmed yet (I shall wait for market confirmation) - it could be wave -1@103.80 in wave-5 which is done from Triangle end@ 94.45 & posts that wave -2 just ended@99. 19 recent low -could head next upside in wave-3- A scenario next

Or Alternate Scenario

It could be Wave-5 completed at 103.80 & recent fall from 103.80 could be wave-a --can look for wave-b upside so what conclusion we draw from here is in both the cases -we shall be looking for an upside wave or leg which is bad for our equity markets.

USDINR (Dollar Rupee)
If the Dollar Index moves upside. Most likely it won't allow Indian Rupee to appreciate much & we know we have a critical level of 66.25 from the previous analysis on USDINR .

India Nifty
The bullish breakout for Dollar Index @94. 45 from the triangle consolidation hit India Markets from the high of 8969 to lows of 7893. Post 7890-7900 zone -It moved up in an explosive manner as dollar index struggled from 103.80's to the current level of 99.19 - So, the conclusion we draw here is any bullish move for dollar index , which could be wave-3 or wave -b (not confirmed yet by the markets) is the probable or most likely scenario to unfold- then Indian Markets could be in the problem so the bulls have to be careful.

In all the charts below -you can the click & press load bar feature which will put future bars on the chart

You would love to read my earlier analysis

Looking for 100.50 & Above 100.50 to 103.50 -------- Bang on Target Achieved

USDINR- Rupee Capsule Power Nifty & Bank Nifty- Nifty & BankNifty did explosive move post having dollar rupee capsule

USDINR 2016 Diary

India Nifty- Going into 2017 -Painful C-wave

Latest Analysis on Nifty - Happy Republic Day

One of the favorites - as I crossed border professionalism- Chaap Daala- Local Traders Language

Trade active: 07:55 Hrs 8th Feb2017

Last Price@100.25

We got a push from 99.20-99.25 recent low -which is not impulsive but can turn into a bullish case once it crosses 101.05 & sustains which is next hurdle -if 101.05 is done, then 101.75 & moving above 101.75 -most likely it should make a new high above 103.80's
Trade active: 20:16 Hrs 13th feb2017

Last Price@100.79

Just Topped 101.01

Trade active: 11:18 Hrs 15th feb2017

Last Price@101.23

What happens if the Dollar Index moves above 103.81 highs?

Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - TradingView India

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