As a trader, one important lesson which I learnt long ago was patience. Most of us think Patience as a virtue(quality) in the outside world, but when I was exposed to trading arena- I realized patience is not a virtue(quality) but a necessity for trading -if you as a trader want to survive in the flux of buyers & sellers then be disciplined- Market is like a Sea where small boats can disappear if you are not disciplined.
7 months back, I suggested dollar index moving in a choppy manner post making a high@100.71 from March 2015 to Sep2016 - Giving bullish breakout & kissing the targets of 100.50 & later 103.50
What Next? The move from 103.80 level looks very choppy & clumsy, so I am having a bullish favor for dollar index, which is not confirmed yet (I shall wait for market confirmation) - it could be wave -1@103.80 in wave-5 which is done from Triangle end@ 94.45 & posts that wave -2 just ended@99. 19 recent low -could head next upside in wave-3- A scenario next
Or Alternate Scenario
It could be Wave-5 completed at 103.80 & recent fall from 103.80 could be wave-a --can look for wave-b upside so what conclusion we draw from here is in both the cases -we shall be looking for an upside wave or leg which is bad for our equity markets.
USDINR (Dollar Rupee) If the Dollar Index moves upside. Most likely it won't allow Indian Rupee to appreciate much & we know we have a critical level of 66.25 from the previous analysis on USDINR.
India Nifty The bullish breakout for Dollar Index @94. 45 from the triangle consolidation hit India Markets from the high of 8969 to lows of 7893. Post 7890-7900 zone -It moved up in an explosive manner as dollar index struggled from 103.80's to the current level of 99.19 - So, the conclusion we draw here is any bullish move for dollar index, which could be wave-3 or wave -b (not confirmed yet by the markets) is the probable or most likely scenario to unfold- then Indian Markets could be in the problem so the bulls have to be careful.
In all the charts below -you can the click & press load bar feature which will put future bars on the chart
You would love to read my earlier analysis
Looking for 100.50 & Above 100.50 to 103.50 -------- Bang on Target Achieved
USDINR- Rupee Capsule Power Nifty & Bank Nifty- Nifty & BankNifty did explosive move post having dollar rupee capsule
USDINR 2016 Diary
India Nifty- Going into 2017 -Painful C-wave
Latest Analysis on Nifty - Happy Republic Day
One of the favorites - as I crossed border professionalism- Chaap Daala- Local Traders Language
We got a push from 99.20-99.25 recent low -which is not impulsive but can turn into a bullish case once it crosses 101.05 & sustains which is next hurdle -if 101.05 is done, then 101.75 & moving above 101.75 -most likely it should make a new high above 103.80's
What happens if the Dollar Index moves above 103.81 highs?
Comments
neneram
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Hi Abhishek ,
Basic question : How Nifty and dollar index inversely related ?
I assume dollar index shows strength of dollar ,so companies having loans in Dollar term have higher repayment cost , But commodities become cheaper especially crude ,
so Nifty shouldn't be inversely related ?
WaveTalks
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@neneram, Stronger Dollar Index won't allow rupee to appreciate. INR as 66.26 critical level. Now Dollar Index turning into an impulsive leg upside -have strong possibility of even going beyond 103.81 -if that happens USDINR also starts impulsive as exxpected in my Dollar Rupee post.
neneram
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@AbhishekHSinghCMT,
Yes Rupee weakens,So one side crude oil prices fall ,but on other side indian rupee weakness impact is more in terms of inflation (which can give rate hike by RBI).
Lots of variables
Moral : dollar index up ^ , Nifty down v
:-))
nirav5
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Thanks Abhishek.
neneram
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Hi,
Thanks for your effort in studying and posting it for readers like me. Keep up good work.
Can it happen that current down fall in dollar index can be a two legged down affair to 95.9 , i.e slight rise to 100.6- 100.7 zone and than fall again ??
WaveTalks
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@neneram, can be possible but if goes & sustains above 101.25-101.50 -likely it will move deep upside or it may become impulsive move or b-wave so which I have mentioned above as alternate scenario. A down -b up move & c-down move is what you are talking about
bibz4trade
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I thought of writing something lengthy but no need, just want to say only one thing Abhishek, you are an absolute gem.
keep going, i can understand how much hard work is going behind each of these analysis, cheers!!
With regards,
Bibin
WaveTalks
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@bibz4trade, Hope we get clear direction for markets.
VimalVashisth
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wow ur analysis absolutelt rocking vvv beautiful analysis n i want to know what ur profile bec many international companies should be ready to contact u .......r u only trader simply like us or more like i m expecting
WaveTalks
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@VimalVashisth, I am currently working for TradingView itself.
Basic question : How Nifty and dollar index inversely related ?
I assume dollar index shows strength of dollar ,so companies having loans in Dollar term have higher repayment cost , But commodities become cheaper especially crude ,
so Nifty shouldn't be inversely related ?