The idea from yesterday is not working as I thought so I had to reevaluate what I'm seeing this morning. The general bias is still down - under the 18ma on daily and weekly, embedded bearish slow stochastic, put call ratios back to normal levels again, and more....
If we move quickly downward, there is daily BB support near 3740 on ES. That should at least pause the market but it's no guarantee that a rally would come from that support. If we are starting a C wave down all bounces will be minimal at best.
Another option is we rally hard after the NFP to the daily 18ma at 3880 area - possible for sure but unless they can hold above the 18ma by close it will be just a bull trap.
I believe many are thinking a bounce and then lower which is why I'm not so sure about a bounce at this time. A sell down with no bounce would catch the majority of longs off guard and keep short sellers from getting into a good position to sell.
Please be careful and as always - good luck!
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A move up to test either the Weekly 18ma or the Daily 18 ma (they are only 20 points apart) may look like this -
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We reached the 18ma on daily and weekly, watch for reversal here. I don't trust the fast move as usual. Could go higher if so, the rally has begun
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bulls want the yellow to be support again and then move up, bearish want to see it fail
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support level reached, make it or break it time
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broke down, bear market rules still in effect. Target lower BB 3750-3730 area on ES
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lower trendline reached, probably find support here for a bit. Above 3840 and it could get bullish again....
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3800 is the level everyone is watching. If it gets taken out we probably get a fast move down to mid to low 3700 by end of day.
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unbelievable price action, they are murdering both sides as much as possible before the move. I still expect down, but over this mornings highs and that will start to look wrong....
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Daily 18ma still at 3862 on this chart - they could get to it and then reverse, trapping bulls. Just watch that level.
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18ma tagged on ES, they are stopping there - for now. I can't tell what this is, but volume has been decreasing.
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putcall on SPX is up 15 percent - bigger money is hedging
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I know it feels like a breakout but we are still in the range so far. Maybe it is, but something bothers me about this move at the moment. I'll try to study it more over the weekend.
Wow, what a wick on futures this morning! I'm going to slowly average into a Tesla position today maybe add some more Monday, I think long term tesla at or under $100 is a great buy. May wait a bit longer to to dip my toes back into SPY. Too much indecision in the market right now.
the_sunship
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@BuzzedLightBeer, it's meaningless unless they can start closing over 3860. Waiting for open to see how the big players see this.
spuspala
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Seems like most likely heading to c?
the_sunship
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@spuspala, they are at the 18ma area on daily, just waiting here to see what happens next. I'll know better by Monday. Volume has been weakening on this up move.
mykohph
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Lol nfp doing the opposite of what everyone thought
the_sunship
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@mykohph, i think a spike up and rally was expected by many. Spike up we got - rally not so sure....
mykohph
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@the_sunship I think the opposite. Most people assumed nfp would be inline with previous months and tank the market. I agree we stay range bound
the_sunship
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@mykohph, putcall would have stayed higher if people were bearish.