Listen up $SPY Investors: Brace for a Financial Hurricane
Running Alpha's Global Crisis Alert System has flagged the S&P 500 multi-fractal market structure on 3 axes of change ( Valuation, Liquidity, and Volatility ) for severe instability ahead.
The S&P 500 Market Meltdown is extremely near and in clear visibility across all time-frames from micro-structure to longer tail-horizons we focus on; once price breaches the 2460.25 to 2459.75 price zone on the September Futures S&P e-mini contract then this opens the flood gates for a massive plu
The Tail-Risk Threat spans a window beginning anytime as early as starting before Aug 11th/14th +/- 3 days upward to October month end. This time zone marks the initiation of a Severe Correction ; so any rallies after this break will be severely limited in nature and time dimension. VIX should soar.
Also supporting these market views by Running Alpha is an independent research note by JP Morgan, where Marko Kolanovic, Global Head of Equity Derivatives and Delta One Strategy, sites a collapse in the correlation among equities and equity sectors in the benchmark indices, which have been shown to offer precursor signatures of market instability ahead. The S&P correlation matrix today is similar to what was observed in in 1993 and 2000, just prior to the 1994 sell off and 2001 Bear trend.
As indicated in a July 27th article by Tae Kim, an Investment Journalist at CNBC, along with CNBC's Michael Bloom who contributed to this story --
-- Kolanovic also cited .
Using one of the world’s leading supercomputers to monitor global markets bubble-like features, coined by Marc Groz ( when a Managing Member of Topos, LLC; now currently Managing Member of Right Risk LLC) as:
Dragon-King Events : "faster than exponential price movement and accelerating oscillations,"
Didier Sornette, director of ETH Zurich at the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO), has recently released an outlook on Global Bubble Status on July 1st, that indicates:
"Based on the large and growing list of positions in its Contrarian Short portfolio—which includes the FANG stocks—it would appear that FCO's supercomputer is setting up for some sort of market crash or correction in the months ahead."
On a more fundamental level, Hoffman's ( Founder ) independent research at Running Alpha, a quantitative research think tank at the intersection of physics and finance, focuses on predicting Dragon-King events using a mathematical physics basis for identifying subtle tells of "internal structure that leads to destabilizing events."
Hoffman adds that systematic measurement and perception biases embedded in the market mechanism of publicly-traded auction markets make them not only highly prone to such symmetry-breaking events, but even more amenable than traditional Dragon-King Analysis for studying super-exponential power law behavior in natural and physical systems.
The Running Alpha Global Crisis Alert System is currently signaling a major market panic inside the tail-risk window starting from near Aug 8th/11th+/3 days to end of October 2017, wherein:
abrupt regime shifts in sentiments structure shows that any news item that would normally be treated as mute, or construed as a potential market negative, will very likely be amplified super-exponentially during this risk window with unusually toxic market price impact. Add in a media circus and a couple of materially negative economic and industry fundamental events to the mix, and this can turn a garden variety market correction into a widespread panic.
The S&P 500 Market Meltdown is extremely near and in clear visibility across all time-frames from micro-structure to longer tail-horizons we focus on; once price breaches the 2460.25 to 2459.75 price zone on the September Futures S&P e-mini contract then this opens the flood gates for a massive plu
The Tail-Risk Threat spans a window beginning anytime as early as starting before Aug 11th/14th +/- 3 days upward to October month end. This time zone marks the initiation of a Severe Correction ; so any rallies after this break will be severely limited in nature and time dimension. VIX should soar.
Also supporting these market views by Running Alpha is an independent research note by JP Morgan, where Marko Kolanovic, Global Head of Equity Derivatives and Delta One Strategy, sites a collapse in the correlation among equities and equity sectors in the benchmark indices, which have been shown to offer precursor signatures of market instability ahead. The S&P correlation matrix today is similar to what was observed in in 1993 and 2000, just prior to the 1994 sell off and 2001 Bear trend.
As indicated in a July 27th article by Tae Kim, an Investment Journalist at CNBC, along with CNBC's Michael Bloom who contributed to this story --
-- Kolanovic also cited .
Using one of the world’s leading supercomputers to monitor global markets bubble-like features, coined by Marc Groz ( when a Managing Member of Topos, LLC; now currently Managing Member of Right Risk LLC) as:
Dragon-King Events : "faster than exponential price movement and accelerating oscillations,"
Didier Sornette, director of ETH Zurich at the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO), has recently released an outlook on Global Bubble Status on July 1st, that indicates:
"Based on the large and growing list of positions in its Contrarian Short portfolio—which includes the FANG stocks—it would appear that FCO's supercomputer is setting up for some sort of market crash or correction in the months ahead."
On a more fundamental level, Hoffman's ( Founder ) independent research at Running Alpha, a quantitative research think tank at the intersection of physics and finance, focuses on predicting Dragon-King events using a mathematical physics basis for identifying subtle tells of "internal structure that leads to destabilizing events."
Hoffman adds that systematic measurement and perception biases embedded in the market mechanism of publicly-traded auction markets make them not only highly prone to such symmetry-breaking events, but even more amenable than traditional Dragon-King Analysis for studying super-exponential power law behavior in natural and physical systems.
The Running Alpha Global Crisis Alert System is currently signaling a major market panic inside the tail-risk window starting from near Aug 8th/11th+/3 days to end of October 2017, wherein:
abrupt regime shifts in sentiments structure shows that any news item that would normally be treated as mute, or construed as a potential market negative, will very likely be amplified super-exponentially during this risk window with unusually toxic market price impact. Add in a media circus and a couple of materially negative economic and industry fundamental events to the mix, and this can turn a garden variety market correction into a widespread panic.
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Listen up $SPY Investors: Brace for a Financial Hurricane
Running Alpha Capital Markets