Ethereum was one of the first coins I bought, and for good reasons. It's contract based and is the basis for numerous other alt-coins. I like this, but ETH' has been like the Wells fargo of Crypto's. It always seems to be on the wrong side of the news headlines. Whether it was the recent coder who locked up about $280 million in coins, the $320 to 10cent fat finger trade on Gdax, the $30 million that was hacked in July and the hacking stories go on. Now whether or not this has anything to do with ETH' itself is another story. BAD NEWS IS BAD NEWS! But news fades quick and hopefully ETH' can put this behind them.
So as an investor I have not panicked, I believe in the technology and ETH' along with DASH' and BCH' are my large plays to challenge BTC' for market cap. LTC' is still to worried about tweeting with Roger Ver and it needs to focus but I wrote on that already. So we have been patient and this patience may start to pay off!!
Now many TA's post the 50 day moving average, but that was developed for stocks. Think about it 50 days is 10 weeks of trading in the stock market. Cryptos trade 24/7 so I'm not sure it applies, and maybe it doesn't matter but I'm a purist. 50 days of trading is a lot less than 70 days so to compare apples to apples I have adjusted accordingly to reflect the daily moving average over 10 weeks for trading cryptos. The blue line is the 35 day moving average and the red is the 70 day.
We have been in a very long (in crypto time) consolidation channel. We noted over a month ago that $313 was a critical level to break and hold. It still is and the channel has shown that we were pretty accurate in making that statement as $313 has been a resistance line more often then not. We did get a fake early breakout, and what I like about this is it is similar to the one that BCH had. Maybe at the same time, I did not compare but none the less we had it. We also recently tried to break out but fell back into the channel. Now we have broken out again, so is it the real deal this time?
Note that spread on the Moving averages going into both breakouts . the first one the slower was negative and just starting to trend up but flat to say the least. This previous one just a few days ago, notice the convergence of the 2 moving averages. Much closer. Good sign of consolidation. Now on this breakout they are almost in line with each other. This is significant as one is twice as many days as the other. Also note that the RSI did not breach the 40 level on the RSI this past time. The previous breakout the RSI fell below 40 and then had trouble breaking 50. But all this time there was little price movement. Look at the price movement from the correction and how we have a similar RSI movement but the movement in price was greater.
Many rely on MA and crosses to time markets and many times it is correct. But MA can criss cross forever, so trading this way leaves you in and out in and out, and eventually your money moves out of your wallet. But this time it's different because it is in addition to the consolidation channel where it too is consolidating. Also the RSI is showing some bullish signs double bottoming above 40. I'm liking what the chart is showing. So this is more probable the time we get a final breakout. I'm looking to add here for a long term investment as well as some for a trade to reduce costs. Obviously I want to see a momentum move to the upside with both HMA"s positive sloping upwards, and the $313 level become support! Resistance becomes support.
So overall ETH' appears to be setting up for the long term and a short term trade. We just have to be patient and not pull the trigger to soon on the trade as it has failed twice now. We need confirmation. With a target of $515 there is no need to be trigger happy! Let's see how it plays out but I may add here for the long term on any pullback as it looks like ETH' is about to break out!
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This is what I want to see for a trade at this point since $313 has been broken and it could repeat history and fall back into the channel.
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Along with both moving average sloping up!
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Updated short and mid term count with target levels. Along with the critical levels to break. If we are entering a true wave III I want to be fully vested on the breakout with a full position. For right now we just have to be patient!
Take a look at the BTC/ETH chart to get the full picture.
KevinWatson
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@altinvesting, agreed, it hasnt broken the resistance line yet on that chart.
BellaDonna
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Would it be possible for you to add a rocket to the chart? ;-)
goldbug1
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@BellaDonna, LOL I want to be fully vested before I do that again!!! lol
Jazzoats
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@goldbug1, Yeah, if you can just go ahead and throw a blue rocket & truck on that graph it'd be much appreciated.
SafeGamble
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I don't know if the price will hold (it's doing pretty well so far), but it would be pretty ironic if we had a breakout right after those controversial and misconstrued comments from Vitalik. If it works out, it would make me glad for two reasons: 1. I hold some Ether; 2. even though I don't support BCH, I don't like to see people who stand up for that solution be attacked for a perfectly reasonable point of view.
I understand the concern, but people who think this is war between BTC and BCH should take their drama and do something constructive with it, like get a life.
SafeGamble
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And thank you for the insights as always, @goldbug1!
goldbug1
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@SafeGamble, Agree there is room for both and I saw Vitalik's comments, however, the one I like last night was " I'm not going to comment on BTC and BCH any more, I'm going to focus on ETH and making it the best coin" or something to that fact. Charlie needs to take a lead from this!!!
justsomeguy
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@goldbug1 What kind of long term projections are you looking at? I see the fib projection at 514, you think that might happen short/mid term? Personally I'm thinking if we can hold above the resistance lines at 335, 338, and 350 we have a real chance of retesting the ATH and 400. But I think it might take 1-3 months to get there.
Thoughts? You're one of the few people doing TA here who I trust, and so I'd love some feedback if you have the time. Thanks!
goldbug1
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@justsomeguy, Agree it will be a month or so but BCH surprised the heck out of us so it is possible it moves faster ;)