Weekly: - Ichimoku gains more bearish momentum. While spot price is still in the Kumo cloud, we have a bearish Senkou Span cross (Kumo twist) 26 weeks ahead. Price turned down sharply from Kijun Sen and made a lower low! All averages point down now (Tenkan, Kijun and their average Senkou A). - Heikin-Ashi pattern is bearish with strong momentum. - Major Head & Shoulders pattern may be validated this or next week with neckline break. In this case long term measured target comes around 8,40-8,45. - EWO ticks into negative zone - MACD bearish cross below zero!
Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, with support at 9,3250. - Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish, but the momentum of reactive pull back is dropping -> see haDelta/SMA3 cross. haOscillator will likely stay below zero too. - EWO is bearish.
I simply like increasing my short EURNOK position on these spikes. I think this trade can be very interesting for the next 5-6 months. Please read my previous post to see how this setup and trade has been developing.
Comments
mrtwist3r
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Added bit more at 9.32. What is your stop loss?
Kumowizard
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My stop is always based on trading capital, position size, and volatility measured by ATR. I also have some more complex rules not to run more risk than 5 % drawdown within a month. And normally I never allow more than 1-1,5 % nominal risk / any full position. So while I have to chose a stop loss level based on technicals, I also have to chose it wisely not to be either too toght to suffer whipsaw, or too wide to allow bigger loss/trade than 1-1,5 % of trading capital.
mrtwist3r
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Sold two small lots on those spikes as you advised, one is already in profit. Thanks!
Kumowizard
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I tried to sell 1,5 risk unit more yesterday at 1,30+, but was not filled. Now waiting a bit, but looks like I will have to accept a bit lower bid from Mr. Market :-)
Besides metal longs and USD short, NOK is getting to be my favourite trade for the year.