Hi, EURUSD has hit our previously cited upside target...now the the minimum waves are in place on this recent up trend for EURUSD. Therefore, it is at risk for a reversal to the downside.
Wait for the previous 4th wave to break before entering short. First target is near 1.0875. Second target is near 1.0635. There is a larger final target near 1.02.
I'd give this about 50/50 chance of reaching the first target. That may not sound like a lot, but if all trades that were 1:3 risk to reward ratio had 50% win ratio, then we'd all make money. Run the math and think about that.
The percentage of wins means nothing without factoring in the depth of average winners vs average losers. There are a lot of 80% win strategies where you still lose money over the long haul. Let's take a sample of 100 trades...80 of them win at +10 pips. 20 of them lose at -50 pips. The result is making 800 pips on the winners and losing 1000 pips on the losers for a net loss of 200 pips.
The key to success is giving yourself grace when losing, let's say 50-60% of the time...but when you win, win big. Let's say I'm only right 40% of the time but when I'm right, it is 3x the size of losers.
As an example, 100 trades, 40 winners at +200 = +8000, then 60 losers at -70 each = -4200. Net total of +8000 -4200 = +3800.
The trader with 60% losing trades is making a lot more money than the trader with 80% wins.
This is an oversimplified example, but when discussing win ratio, it needs to be followed up with risk to reward ratio to have any kind of meaningful representation.
Be VERY careful to understand this because MOST of the strategies people sell out there are a negative expectation formula...but they don't care because they've sold you something.
Check this: