EURUSD: Reversal in Sight – Will the Bears Regain Control?

Jun 30

At the start of the week, EURUSD is trading close to a key resistance zone at 1.172–1.174 after an impressive rally. However, recent price action shows signs of exhaustion, with several minor highs forming right at this resistance. This is a classic distribution setup — often a precursor to a reversal if no new catalyst emerges.

From a technical perspective, the H1 chart reveals a weakening uptrend. Price has repeatedly failed to break through the resistance zone, and the short-term ascending trendline is now under threat. If strong selling pressure appears around 1.174, the next downside target could be the support zone near 1.160 — and possibly 1.155 if the US dollar regains strength.

On the macro side, the US dollar remains under pressure as more traders bet on the Fed cutting rates sooner than expected. In addition, optimism surrounding a new trade deal between the US and Canada and potential policy shifts under the new administration are weighing on the dollar. Still, recent inflation data remains relatively stable, with Core PCE coming in at 2.7% — higher than forecasts — which may prompt the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.

With both technical and macro factors aligning, EURUSD is now at a critical juncture. If we see clear rejection signals at the current resistance (such as a pinbar, bearish engulfing candle, or volume exhaustion), it could offer a solid short setup. On the other hand, a strong breakout above this zone may confirm trend continuation, with the next target near 1.180.

So, what’s your take? Will the bulls keep control, or are the bears about to return? Let us know your view!

Jul 1

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