EURUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Sell From Value Zone

Jun 13

Fundamental Analysis

EURUSD remains under pressure as the market continues to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming U.S. macro data. If the dollar stays supported, recovery attempts on EURUSD may remain limited.

For next week, the main focus is whether price can retest the value zone above before continuing lower in line with the EMA trend.

Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, EURUSD is still trading inside a descending channel. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price, showing that the main structure is still bearish.

Price is currently around 1.1565 after reacting from the lower support area. However, this recovery is moving toward the Fibonacci value zone and EMA resistance area near 1.1615.

The main sell zone is around 1.1612 - 1.1627. This area aligns with the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, previous broken structure, and liquidity above price.

The key bearish confirmation level is around 1.1500 - 1.1510. If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below this support, the bearish continuation scenario becomes stronger.

The weekly downside target is the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 1.1387.

Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1565
Main sell zone: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Value zone / Fibonacci area: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Liquidity above: 1.1644 - 1.1646

EMA resistance area: 1.1592 - 1.1646
Key support zone: 1.1500 - 1.1510
Weekly Fibonacci target: 1.1387
Invalidation area: above 1.1646

Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario

Entry: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Stop Loss: 1.1646
Take Profit 1: 1.1510
Take Profit 2: 1.1450
Take Profit 3: 1.1387

Sell Condition

The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to pull back into the 1.1612 - 1.1627 sell zone. This area is the main value zone on the chart and also aligns with EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.

A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.

If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 1.1500 - 1.1510, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 1.1450, followed by the weekly Fibonacci target around 1.1387.

Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.1612 - 1.1627.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 1.1500 - 1.1510 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1646, the sell setup is invalid.

Overall, the main view for next week remains bearish while EURUSD trades below the EMA structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1510, 1.1450, and the weekly Fibonacci target at 1.1387.

Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the 1.1615 value zone first?

Jun 15

Trade active

The EURUSD trading scenario shows the order has been filled and a slight decline has begun.

Jun 18

Trade closed: target reached

EURUSD impressively reached 50% of its profit target; this short order was filled twice at the entry point and dropped sharply when the FOMC news was released.