EURUSD: 1.1405 – A Key Test of Bearish Control

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD is experiencing a technical rebound toward the 1.1398 level, yet the broader picture remains unchanged: the primary trend is bearish. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and is re-approaching a downtrend line that has previously triggered selling reactions. This indicates that the bulls have only managed a short-term bounce, insufficient to reverse the market structure.

The 1.1405 zone serves as a critical test point. It acts not only as immediate resistance but also as a potential retest level before the bears regain control. If EURUSD faces rejection around this area, selling pressure could rapidly drive the price back to the 1.1363 level. Should this support level break, the next target would extend toward 1.1300.

Notably, the current rebound lacks a clear bullish structure. While the price has risen, it remains trapped beneath resistance, the cloud, and the downtrend line. Given that the USD remains supported ahead of US employment data, EURUSD is likely to remain under pressure unless it can decisively break through the 1.1405 zone.

Entry Focus: Prioritize SELL positions around 1.1395–1.1405 if rejection candles or signs of weakness appear at resistance.
Target: 1.1300
Invalidation: The bearish scenario is invalidated if the price closes clearly above 1.1420 on the H4 timeframe, particularly if it decisively breaks the downtrend line.