🧠 EUR/USD Short Setup – Sell Limit Plan Breakdown
The recent rally on EUR/USD shows signs of exhaustion, with a potential 5-wave Elliott structure completing on the H4 chart. Price is currently re-testing the 1.1796 – 1.1801 supply zone, where a Sell Limit has been placed in anticipation of a corrective leg down.
📊 Technical Breakdown – Elliott Wave Confluence
Wave III has peaked around the 1.1811 level.
Wave IV was a classic correction with strong displacement to the downside.
Wave V formed a double-top-like structure, failing to close strongly above the previous high → a sign of exhaustion.
The current bullish move is re-testing an Order Block left behind at 1.1796, providing ideal sell-side liquidity for institutional traps.
🔺 Sell Zone: ( 1.17960 – 1.18013 )
📍 Entry: 1.17962
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.18113
🎯 TP Target: 3R – 6R - 10R (targeting the OBS zone around 1.1712 and possibly lower)
🧠 Macro Context – Why This Reversal Makes Sense
The week is packed with red folder news from both the USD and EUR sides. Here's what to expect:
⚠️ Major USD Events:
NFP Jobs Report (Fri): Forecasted at 147K with Unemployment Rate at 4.1% – any surprise can cause USD volatility.
ISM PMI & Powell Speech: Likely to reinforce or challenge rate cut expectations.
⚠️ Key EUR Catalysts:
CPI Flash Estimates: Could hint at the ECB’s next move.
President Lagarde Speeches: Watch for any tone shift after weak Eurozone data.
👉 A hawkish Fed + weak Euro CPI = strong downside potential for EUR/USD.
💡 Why This Trade Setup Makes Sense
Perfect Liquidity Grab Setup: Price is luring breakout buyers at wave V high.
Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup targets 5R – 10R, making it a clean asymmetric opportunity.
Macro Confluence: USD strength likely into the week → ideal for bearish continuation.
Technical OB & Rejection Zone: Supply aligns perfectly with prior imbalance.
⚠️ Trading Notes
Only execute if price taps 1.1796–1.1801 zone cleanly.
Avoid entry during high-impact news — wait for reaction.
Secure partials if price reaches 1.1740 to lock in 2R–3R gains.
The recent rally on EUR/USD shows signs of exhaustion, with a potential 5-wave Elliott structure completing on the H4 chart. Price is currently re-testing the 1.1796 – 1.1801 supply zone, where a Sell Limit has been placed in anticipation of a corrective leg down.
📊 Technical Breakdown – Elliott Wave Confluence
Wave III has peaked around the 1.1811 level.
Wave IV was a classic correction with strong displacement to the downside.
Wave V formed a double-top-like structure, failing to close strongly above the previous high → a sign of exhaustion.
The current bullish move is re-testing an Order Block left behind at 1.1796, providing ideal sell-side liquidity for institutional traps.
🔺 Sell Zone: ( 1.17960 – 1.18013 )
📍 Entry: 1.17962
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.18113
🎯 TP Target: 3R – 6R - 10R (targeting the OBS zone around 1.1712 and possibly lower)
🧠 Macro Context – Why This Reversal Makes Sense
The week is packed with red folder news from both the USD and EUR sides. Here's what to expect:
⚠️ Major USD Events:
NFP Jobs Report (Fri): Forecasted at 147K with Unemployment Rate at 4.1% – any surprise can cause USD volatility.
ISM PMI & Powell Speech: Likely to reinforce or challenge rate cut expectations.
⚠️ Key EUR Catalysts:
CPI Flash Estimates: Could hint at the ECB’s next move.
President Lagarde Speeches: Watch for any tone shift after weak Eurozone data.
👉 A hawkish Fed + weak Euro CPI = strong downside potential for EUR/USD.
💡 Why This Trade Setup Makes Sense
Perfect Liquidity Grab Setup: Price is luring breakout buyers at wave V high.
Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup targets 5R – 10R, making it a clean asymmetric opportunity.
Macro Confluence: USD strength likely into the week → ideal for bearish continuation.
Technical OB & Rejection Zone: Supply aligns perfectly with prior imbalance.
⚠️ Trading Notes
Only execute if price taps 1.1796–1.1801 zone cleanly.
Avoid entry during high-impact news — wait for reaction.
Secure partials if price reaches 1.1740 to lock in 2R–3R gains.
Trade active
Price Reach Sell Zone +5R
Trade closed: target reached
Note
+100PIPS 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.