This morning, the EUR/USD was up 0.13% to $1.08107. A mixed start to the day saw the EUR/USD fall to an early low of $1.07949 before rising to a high of $1.08195. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0817 capped the upside.
The EUR/USD needs to avoid a fall through the $1.0781 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0817 and the morning high of $1.08195. A move through the morning high would signal a bullish session. However, the EUR/USD needs hawkish ECB chatter and better-than-expected business survey numbers to support a breakout session.
In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0836 and resistance at $1.0850. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0891.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0761 into play. However, barring a data-fueled sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.07. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0725 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0670.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bullish signals. The EUR/USD sits above the 50-day EMA ($1.07576). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A hold above S1 ($1.0761) and the 50-day EMA ($1.07576) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0817) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1.0836) and $1.0850. However, a fall through S1 ($1.0761) and the 50-day EMA ($1.07576) would bring S2 ($1.0725) into play. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.