The fundamental mistake that leads investors to lose money is to think that the economy leads the market, when in reality it’s the other way around.
Financial markets never crash when things go wrong. In fact, the opposite is true.
As you can see in the chart, the Dax 30, one of the most important indices in the world, rebounded just at the very worst moment, when the Covid 19 pandemic hit the entire world.
But when everything seems to go well, when you start getting positive macroeconomic data, there comes the collapse, which goes to show you that the conventional macroeconomic approach is deeply questionable.
The markets are now preparing for the Christmas rally: we believe that negative data, at this point, will not be able to cause big shocks.
The markets are looking ahead, to the new stimulus round in the U.S. and to the arrival of the vaccine, both elements that reassure us about a positive path ahead.
That is why in our private trading room we have been giving mostly buy signals in recent months when everything was going wrong.