praveen.bhatiya

Double top short GAIL

Short
NSE:GAIL   GAIL INDIA LTD
Simple classical double top has given a breakout and price are testing from the below. Short entry is possible at this level.

Comments

Hi ,
Thanks for posting your observation,Downside limited to 400 ?

Reply
@neneram, Double top pattern target would be around 374 that is also close to Fib .786 so it seems that level is possible however there is no immediate support in between so it can also free fall up to 363. Let's see what market wants.
Reply
neneram praveen.bhatiya
@praveen.bhatiya,
Praveen Bhai thanks for quick response. Good Observation.
Slightly different view on similar line : expecting it to go to around 424 and show some doji or red a candle with 424 as top , considering today's nifty strength.
and than it can go down.

Decemeber put option in Gail has very low liquidity and some absurd pricing :(
Reply
@neneram, I do agree with you on 424 level as from where it starts falling can not be predicted. So I would say short on the first sign of weakness wherever it happens 424 or 426. Options are not liquid in many stocks including GAIL and spread between bid and ask is too high. I believe FM should take action to abolish STT and other corrective measure to bring more trader.
Reply
neneram praveen.bhatiya
@praveen.bhatiya,
Praveen Bhai , DId you take the trade ? I bought 430 strike put options around 20.5
Reply
@neneram, Wishing you all the best.
Reply
neneram praveen.bhatiya
@praveen.bhatiya,
Got busted , took loss of 5 (*1500) rs per lot ,
Missed very very basic analysis , 20 moving avg is abv 50 mov avg , so the trade has to be with trend :((
Reply
@neneram, Sorry to hear about your losses. Just wanted to add that the trade was not triggered yet as we have discussed that on firs sign of weakness on daily chart there was not a single weak candle. I could still enter tomorrow on weakness preferably an engulfing. Let's see what it does tomorrow.
Reply
neneram praveen.bhatiya
@praveen.bhatiya,

Praveen Bhai I take it as gr8 opportunity for me to learn.

I have completely opposite view on this now, The only trade to take in this is long ,

Entering short trade is like working for 5-10 bucks counter trend pull backs and ignoring 50 -100 bucks rally , not worth the efforts.
(short would be a pull back scalp trade that too b'cas of virtue of NIFTY falling and not bcas of analysis ).

if it shows 395-400 would be superb double bottom with RSI divergence (dream entry) , possibility of break below this support and going to 360 would be extreme bcas at that point than RSI would be single digit. (And nifty would be below 6800)
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