GBPUSD - BULLS NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION - NEWS AHEAD

Mar 11, 2025

Symbol - GBPUSD

CMP - 1.2937

The GBPUSD pair has shown impressive bullish strength recently, continuing its upward move against the US dollar. This strength can be attributed to aggressive sell-off of the US dollar, which has created a favorable environment for the British pound. The pair is currently trading in a critical zone, with consolidation at the 1.2920 - 1.2940 levels, making it a pivotal point for future price action.

From a technical standpoint, I previously shared my analysis when GBPUSD was trading around the 1.2460 levels, identifying a strong breakout, and I'm pleased to report that all the targets I set have been reached.

However, the current situation remains complex, with crucial economic data due to be released shortly. US JOLTs job openings data is expected later today, followed by CPI data tomorrow. These releases will have a significant impact on the US dollar, which in turn will influence GBPUSD. Given that the US dollar index (DXY) is trading at oversold levels, if the upcoming data comes more than forecast, we could see a strong rebound in the US dollar, potentially pushing GBPUSD lower. However, if the data comes lower than expected reading, it could trigger another corrective move in the DXY & an up move in GBPUSD. Despite this, I believe such a move would be a false breakdown in DXY, with the US dollar likely to recover and strengthen in the medium term.

In the event of weaker than forecast data, the GBPUSD pair could see a push towards the 1.3050-1.3080 levels. These levels represent strong resistance zones, where the pair is likely to encounter selling pressure. Should GBPUSD reach these levels, a reversal back towards lower levels is highly probable.

Key Support Levels: 1.2920, 1.2900
Key Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3060

As key support for the pair is at 1.2920-1.2900, and a strong break below these levels could signal a potential shift in trend. On the other hand, resistance levels lie around 1.2950. If the bulls manage to push past these levels, we may see further price growth till 1.3050-1.3080. However, bulls should exercise caution at current levels. Any reversal could occur sooner than expected, given the prevailing market conditions and upcoming economic data releases.

In conclusion, the fate of GBPUSD heavily depends on the upcoming US economic data. Traders should closely monitor the JOLTs and CPI data, as these will likely dictate the next move for the pair.

Mar 25, 2025

Trade active

Short position active.

Apr 5, 2025

Note

Gave a false breakout of resistance & then fell immediately.

Short position active.