Gold is currently completing an eventual Cypher pattern. Although, the price has already gone quite low, it can break 1100 levels as the Dollar Index hasn´t yet completed the last move to the upside.
Nevertheless, due to a great Risk/Reward levels, small longs on Gold can be added as the target price is really high: I believe we can reach a 141.40% extension of 2016 move which would match a 38.2% retracement of the last important wave down. Therefore, my target for Gold in 2017 is 1500 level.
I have already opened a long position this week from 1125 level. Longs can be gradually added, placing SL orders at 1030. My TP1: is 1467, TP2: 1515
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On gold, I believe there are two main ideas: 1. We´ve already had a low or we will have it at 1085-1120 zone. Then it will go to 1450-1500 and then start moving even lower, somewhere like 950-850 or even lower (haven´t checked it yet) 2. The only thing that concerns me on gold is that USD hasn´t shown the highs yet. I don´t think EUR may hit the parity soon but I either think we have already seen lows on EURUSD pair. Therefore, Gold will react and react lower. If US DOllar index goes above 105, I believe we can even break 1000 level. If this happens, we will first follow to 900-800 levels. Only after these lows are set, we will climb up but that ascending will be much larger in time and much higher, probably, even higher than the current maximum at 1923
The only thing we have left now is sit, enjoy the show and look for a reversal =)
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Alternative trade chart: it has already hit the TP1 and soon will run to TP2 which is at 1278 area. If completed, shorts can be taken at 1278 to 970-960 area
Oh! So many comments and I had no notifications =( I´m sorry for a late reply!
allanrcferreira
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@captain_smollett, no problem... the question where we will go... maybe 1086 is last stop before a trend reversal... UJ has a leg until 120 as you said, and DX didn't finish it uptrend...
captain_smollett
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@allanrcferreira, exactly. Just mentioned it in the comment. I think there are two possible scenarios.
However, we are definitely nearing the lows. One could risk these 200 ish and buy, targeting 1450. The reward is already higher than a risk. Also, if we go below 2015 minimum, that will definitely be a long-term bottom. Gold will become probably the best investment for next 4-5 years
Hi! Your Cypher pattern here is nice, I did the same chart before I saw you... but I am waiting gold prices at 88.6%, not at 78.6%. If you place a Fibo retracement from 2001 low (253 USD/OZ) to 2011 high (1920 USD/OZ), the 50% retracement are at the same level of 88.6% on Cypher... Coincidence? Maybe...What do you think???
captain_smollett
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@allanrcferreira, I don´t think these are coincidences =) The important thing is that market will see that level and the stops can be tight if we decide to go long.
menyuken
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Just make plans for next year before Christmas, huh ;)
WenNewman
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@menyuken, do you agree the above gold&silver charts
menyuken
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@WenNewman, this is my view on Gold, several points...
1. As C is not in correct zone, so Cypher is not valid, therefor no need to watch 786.
2. Bat is valid, and 886 is the completion point.
3. There is a very good resistance structure around 886.
4. FIBO EXT 2.618 of previous wave is inside the resistance structure.
5. Monitor the RSI divergence and confirmation from RSI in daily view. (refer to the previous)