kjwlegend

Gold 0527 Trading Plan

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Instead of calling Gold analysis, I would use the term of trading plan or trading journal to record my trades.
So please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion. Please control your own risk if you want to follow, we may have different risk preference and position management strategy.

Date: 2020/05/27

No plan, No trading


Entry reason:

There are 2 possible situations here:
-----
No.1 wave (v) is not completed at 1763. The previous rise is just wave (1) of v.
Currently gold is doing a retracement wave (2) in a descending wedge channel with an a-b-c-d-e pattern. Gold was also testing the previous wave (iv) channel upper line and seems the support is valid for now.

For this situation, the key resistence level is the upper line of the wedge channel which is 1720 area. Break out the channel will confirm the start of wave (3),

-----
No.2. Wave (v) is already completed at 1763. Now it's doing correction wave A and later B & C may happen and gives me opportunity to long and short again. Then the Gold will start a big fall to 1640 area.
However for this assumption, the end of A or B can not be predicted.

----

No matter which assumption is valid, based on Elliot theroy (if it's correct), a long trade is confirmed. It's just a matter of entry point and SL setting.
I'm more bias on the No.1 assumption but the bull power is quite weak at this moment. So I still need to monitor the price carefully.

So here's my trading plan for today:

Buy at 1705-1710 : SL 1700 TP 1720, 1734, 1750

Maybe sell at 1720 and will see how the price does in that range. If breaks out strongly, buy stop. Otherwise, I may open a sell position
Trade active: Long opened at 1708
Trade active: add another long at 1705 now
Comment: Gold falls down to the support line, which is bad signal for the bull.
If no rebounce for next few hours, the bullish trend is kinda over.

Comments

Seems risky to long here, since the price is entering ATH territory not reached since 2012 and appears to be a wedge completing on 4hr. Good luck to you though
+1 Reply
kjwlegend BillyMadison
@BillyMadison,
Agree that the long successful rate may be quite low. I will control the risk with SL
+1 Reply
if u haven't noticed, check out the bullish engulfing candle on the Aug contract 30 min chart when the buying support came in near the lows, a massive 12.1K lots, followed by nearly 8.3K lots. It's a good sign.
Reply
kjwlegend dennistang1970
@dennistang1970, Thank you for sharing!
Reply
Equities coming off (and gold rebounding) most likely due to potential sanctions by US on China before the end of this week. This could escalate tensions further. White House advisor Larry Kudlow said that Trump is no longer that interested in the trade deal.
Reply
kjwlegend dennistang1970
@dennistang1970,

Thanks!
Reply
A fast rebounce happened. Watch 1705 area
Reply
so generous of you to update us on your trading plan. Thank you!
Reply
kjwlegend markmen
@markmen,

I'm still holding my long and add another position at 1699. I changed my SL to 1695 now but carefully monitor the candle power. I may close the trade manually or maybe not.

Next 2 hours are important
Reply
markmen kjwlegend
Yah I'm also hoping for a Bullish Candle to form but both h4 and d1 have a very strong bearish momentum. Anyways gold is very unpredictable :) Goodluck in our trade :)
Reply
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