So please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion. Please control your own risk if you want to follow, we may have different risk preference and position management strategy.
No plan, No trading
There are 2 possible situations here:
No.1 wave (v) is not completed at 1763. The previous rise is just wave (1) of v.
Currently gold is doing a retracement wave (2) in a descending channel with an a-b-c-d-e pattern. Gold was also testing the previous wave (iv) channel upper line and seems the support is valid for now.
For this situation, the key resistence level is the upper line of the channel which is 1720 area. Break out the channel will confirm the start of wave (3),
No.2. Wave (v) is already completed at 1763. Now it's doing correction wave A and later B & C may happen and gives me opportunity to long and short again. Then the Gold will start a big fall to 1640 area.
However for this assumption, the end of A or B can not be predicted.
No matter which assumption is valid, based on theroy (if it's correct), a long trade is confirmed. It's just a matter of entry point and SL setting.
I'm more bias on the No.1 assumption but the bull power is quite weak at this moment. So I still need to monitor the price carefully.
So here's my trading plan for today:
Buy at 1705-1710 : SL 1700 TP 1720, 1734, 1750
Maybe sell at 1720 and will see how the price does in that range. If breaks out strongly, buy stop. Otherwise, I may open a sell position
If no rebounce for next few hours, the bullish trend is kinda over.
Agree that the long successful rate may be quite low. I will control the risk with SL
I'm still holding my long and add another position at 1699. I changed my SL to 1695 now but carefully monitor the candle power. I may close the trade manually or maybe not.
Next 2 hours are important