Gold enters the new trading week with the first encouraging technical signal after breaking slightly above the descending H4 trendline that has capped price action throughout the recent decline. Although the breakout is still modest, it suggests selling pressure is gradually weakening and buyers are beginning to regain control.
The broader market structure, however, has not fully shifted into a bullish trend. The 4040–4060 area remains the most important resistance, where the H4 descending trendline and previous supply converge. This will be the decisive zone to determine whether the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce or the beginning of a larger bullish reversal.
As long as gold continues holding above the breakout area and forms higher lows, the bullish recovery scenario remains favored. A confirmed break and sustained acceptance above 4040–4060 would likely attract fresh buying momentum and open the way toward the psychological 4100 resistance, where the market will face its next major technical test.
For the coming sessions, the preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks while price remains above the newly broken trendline. Scalping opportunities can still be taken within the current range, but traders should be prepared to shift into breakout trading once resistance is cleared with strong momentum.
📍 Key Levels
🔹 3970 – 3990 Major support zone and preferred buying area.
🔹 4015 – 4045 Breakout support and H4 trendline retest zone.
🔹 4040 – 4060 Key resistance. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the bullish structure.
🔹 4090 – 4105 Primary upside target before reassessing higher-timeframe momentum.
✅ Preferred Scenario Gold holds above the broken descending trendline. Buyers defend the 4015–4045 support region. A breakout above 4040–4060 confirms bullish continuation. The next upside objective is the 4100 area. Failure to hold above the breakout structure would delay, but not immediately invalidate, the recovery outlook.
The broader market structure, however, has not fully shifted into a bullish trend. The 4040–4060 area remains the most important resistance, where the H4 descending trendline and previous supply converge. This will be the decisive zone to determine whether the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce or the beginning of a larger bullish reversal.
As long as gold continues holding above the breakout area and forms higher lows, the bullish recovery scenario remains favored. A confirmed break and sustained acceptance above 4040–4060 would likely attract fresh buying momentum and open the way toward the psychological 4100 resistance, where the market will face its next major technical test.
For the coming sessions, the preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks while price remains above the newly broken trendline. Scalping opportunities can still be taken within the current range, but traders should be prepared to shift into breakout trading once resistance is cleared with strong momentum.
📍 Key Levels
🔹 3970 – 3990 Major support zone and preferred buying area.
🔹 4015 – 4045 Breakout support and H4 trendline retest zone.
🔹 4040 – 4060 Key resistance. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the bullish structure.
🔹 4090 – 4105 Primary upside target before reassessing higher-timeframe momentum.
✅ Preferred Scenario Gold holds above the broken descending trendline. Buyers defend the 4015–4045 support region. A breakout above 4040–4060 confirms bullish continuation. The next upside objective is the 4100 area. Failure to hold above the breakout structure would delay, but not immediately invalidate, the recovery outlook.
Trade active
🔥 UPDATE PLAN 20/07 – BREAKOUT TRIGGERED ACCORDING TO SCENARIO!Gold reacted exactly according to plan, breaking the H4 downtrend line, then successfully retesting the breakout zone before continuing its upward momentum.
From the breakout zone around 4018–4022, the price increased by more than 450–550 pips, simultaneously surpassing the short-term resistance zone as predicted.
Notably, this breakout was accompanied by quite good momentum, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control after several sessions of consolidation below the trendline.
If gold continues to hold above the breakout zone, the next target remains 4090–4105, where it will determine whether the medium-term uptrend has truly returned.
The plan is correct – The breakout is correct – The momentum is correct. Waiting for the market to confirm the next move. 🚀
📊 XAUUSD & Forex Trading📈 Intraday setups – risk-managed⏱️ Live alerts + technical reasoning🧠 Consistency over hype📌 Trade the plan. Manage the risk.👉 Full signals & real-time insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 XAUUSD & Forex Trading📈 Intraday setups – risk-managed⏱️ Live alerts + technical reasoning🧠 Consistency over hype📌 Trade the plan. Manage the risk.👉 Full signals & real-time insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.