HDFC Bank — Fourth Test of a Multi-Year Trendline

Overview

HDFC Bank has just fallen sharply this week (-7.09%), and this drop is bringing it down toward a trendline that's been holding since 2022. This trendline has already been tested three times before — and now it's headed for a fourth test, right around the 732 zone.

What's Happening

Looking at the weekly chart, there's a rising trendline connecting the lows going all the way back to 2022. Price has tested this trendline three times already (marked on the chart), and each time it has held. Now, after this week's sharp fall, price is heading toward the trendline for a fourth time.

The more times a trendline gets tested and holds, the more traders tend to watch and respect that level — but it's also fair to note that each additional test can increase the risk of an eventual failure too. A trendline doesn't hold forever.

Key Levels to Watch

Trendline Support (4th test approaching): 732
Resistance above (recent swing high): 843
Current price: 761.45

Two Ways This Can Go

If the trendline holds a fourth time: That would be an impressive track record for this level, and a bounce from here would likely head back toward the 843 resistance zone.

If the trendline finally breaks: A weekly close well below 732 would be a meaningful development — the first failure of this level in over three years — and would open the door to levels well below anything seen on this trendline so far.

Beginner's Lesson

Every extra time a trendline holds adds to its credibility, but it doesn't guarantee the next test will go the same way. In fact, some traders get caught off guard exactly because a level "always held before" — right before the one time it doesn't. This is why watching for confirmation, especially after a sharp move like this week's, matters more than assuming history repeats.

Conclusion

HDFC Bank is heading into an important fourth test of a multi-year trendline, right after a sharp weekly fall. As always, we're watching for confirmation rather than assuming either outcome.

For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.