VPA_TRADER

LONG-TERM-ACCUMULATION-CHANNEL-BREAKOUT-VOLUME-PROFILE

Long
NSE:IBULHSGFIN   INDIABULLS HOUSING
Disclaimer-:
1. Long-Term Bets can be solely made from technical analysis if done correctly. Nonetheless this can be used in combination with Fundamental Analysis . So readers feel free to comment fundamental ideas if any, either in support of long or short, both will be highly appreciated.
2. **FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
3. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.


VOLUME-PROFILE-:

Can be used to identify accumulation/distribution regions when we compare the current region volume to previous/historical volume .
During trend-reversal if the previous trend volume is lower as compared to current region volume then high chance that reversal will take place and will face less resistance to previous trend.
By spotting the regions at the right time we can enter and not miss out on the nice trend.

OBSERVATIONS-:
NSE:IBULHSGFIN was in a downtrend. it broke out of the channel whose trendlines have been tested at least 3 times. Thus giving a strong breakout.
Recently it formed a nice triangular pattern and has given a breakout.

The volume of current region is very very high compared to the volume of fall. It means trend -reversal will happen and now accumulation is happening. Moreover as it moves forward it will face weak resistance.
A nice breakout above 300 level will confirm and uptrend may start.

TARGET WITH LOGIC
Since the all the time high level, 1370 , stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can reach the all-time high.

ENTRY-:
Above 300 breakout with confirmation. You can also do position sizing .
STOP-LOSS-:
Since 55 is a nice support level so for a long-term bet a conservative and wide stop-loss is essential. In this case since the target is high enough, it makes sense to have a deep stop-loss.


EXIT

Sometimes we have to exit before target. Following can be taken as signs of bearishness-:
1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit

**IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :)

**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.
**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.

NSE:IBULHSGFIN

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