fcsa

ICICI BANK - Long Position

Long
NSE:ICICIBANK   ICICI BANK
I know this looks like quite a mad decision but I have gone long on ICICI Bank since yesterday @ 272 ( futures price).

- It has retraced to almost 78.6% of the rise from 3rd April to 15th May A very deep retracement
- Immediate target = 288 ( futures price July Contract)
- SL = below 268 ( futures price July Contract)
Trade active: Long since 272 ( futures price July Contract)
Comment: Daily chart seems to forming a Hammer candle after what is more or less a series of 3 Falling Crows (with a tiny Doji in between). Theoretically that is bullish.
Comment: Highest Open Interest addition is at 260/270 & 290/300/310/320 (spot prices). These could be SL & Target levels. I have written puts at 270 in addition to being long @ 272 in futures.
Trade active: On Monday I will set 290 (futures) as immediate target and reduce some of my bullish positions.
Trade active: Moving beautifully... Target set at 290...
Trade active: Added to long position in futures
Comment: ICICI Bank price action has developed arthritis!! But hopefully it will move sometime soon. Holding long position.
Comment: Closed @ 270
Trade active: Shorted @ 270 (futures)
Trade closed: target reached: Closed @ 267
Comment: Long at 270.1 futures price
Trade active: Finally some signs of a recovery!
Targets: 275/280/285/288/290/301/313/325
Comment: Targets and all prices mentioned above are for July Futures
Trade closed manually: Closed for a modest profit of 8k per lot. Moving too slow for too long. Released margin for new trades.
Comment: It was a good idea to exit ICICI Bank when I did.
Comment: Re-entered long in ICICI Bank...
The Daily candles today and yesterday seem to be forming a bullish Harami pattern
Comment: Long position because:
- Very low stochastics on the daily chart since about 5th July
- Price action has been finding support at 127.2% extension of the drop from 15th May to 31st May. Often this is a point of reversal and it has been consolidating at this level since 28th June.
- And finally as I mentioned earlier there seems to be a bullish Harami candle pattern forming in the daily charts
Trade closed: stop reached: 260 SL hit. I expect a support levela t 257/252. ICICI Bank is severely oversold so there may a good opportunity at this price level. However, in futures the lot size is 2750 so Mark To Market margin requirements could be quite high. Shall watch the situation tomorrow and then decide on a trade. Or may enter long in the spot market for long term holding.
Trade active: Long @ 262 (July Futures)
Trade active: Holding long position
Trade closed manually: Rolled over July futures position and closed Aug futures at 290 which was my target

Comments

Please mention your monthly target as i also went long & thinking that 288 levels will come
Reply
fcsa subramanya03.r
@subramanya03.r, I think 288/290 is very probable. Highest put OI is at 250/260/270 and call OI at 280/290 (spot prices)

So 288 is a good target with 260-270 as SL. I sold and shorted because 270 was one of my support levels and was providing resistance. So I lost about Rs2 from my long position but gained Rs3 from my short. Towards EOD I again went long at 270.1. So I think ICICI has taken a beating but it may now recover.
Reply
@fcsa, I also felt same and accumulated 300 ce .Now 265 should act as support and if 279 is held on closing basis we can see 284/288
Reply
fcsa subramanya03.r
@subramanya03.r, OK... I primarily trade futures but when I do options I only write options never buy. Chcances of successful trades are much higher when writing options. Options buyers lose 80-90 percent of the time
Reply