The way its moving today is definitely manipulative. All ICICI bank supporters, please understand that we are traders and such things are not good for trading. Do not try to justify your views.
ArchanaMore
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Perfect Analysis
Pranabkolkatay
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Sentiment has little place in market, and affects adversely! Results are bad but it may not be as bad as someone thought and might be he or she was delighted in going long, thinking the result is good! It is really very difficult to analyse the value of a bank (next to impossible)! Management ethics is a global crisis across all levels! Boardroom disagreement may not be unhealthy (on a lighter note). I thought Axis bank result was bad and took a put option strike price 480@8.25 (that too on the day when it came done from 23 to 8 level). Today the same is trading at 2.35! Such a high volume trading in ICICI bank is really difficult to manipulate. But I also found that it was finding difficulty to cross 310 level since 2.30 pm onward! So may be tomorrow there will be another day! Disclaimer: I don't have any any position in the form of equity or derivative of ICICI bank. Always wish you the best!
fcsa
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@Pranabkolkatay, Thanks for your response... I fully agree. You are right, apparently the sentiment is that the worst is behind them and now the way is up... but with the same top management that got it down in such a mess!!
Personally I don't trade on fundamentals - only big players can afford to do that. But when the fundamentals and technical are at such variance then I examine the situation very closely for a trade opportunity. I had a successful trade yesterday and today with Trump walking out of the Iran deal lets see what happens. The markets are likely to cool down especially with Karnataka elections coming up. And ICICI went up over 6% so it will probably correct today. Cheers.
Pranabkolkatay
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@fcsa, Thank you for sharing. “The markets are likely to cool down especially with Karnataka elections coming up”
I tried to resist but could not help in sharing my view strictly on that point. Karnataka Election is a state election and state has little to do on central law makers. Why market should be worried? I think people holding high premium stocks in mid and small cap will not easily sell those irrespective of the outcome of Karnataka. Sectors like IT, consumer durable like (Autos) and first moving consumer goods will probably remain expensive (after implementation of GST). The most politically sensitive stocks should be from banking sectors,Oil and gas, and Infrastructure stocks and those have never been appreciated over past so many years. HDFC bank will always remain in buyers list irrespective of Karnataka result. Oil processing companies are now probably value buy, those are already down. A few stocks like Maruti etc have already corrected and gone to oversold region. It will be very difficult to get stocks like PAGE industries ,DEMART, MRF, etc at cheaper price and those types pf stocks have received some kind of image making them costly. People holding them will be reluctant to sell them on the basis of an election. (state or general election in 2019). Rather they will be costlier even if one or two quarters they perform badly. All logistics companies are making new lows even in this extended bull market. Pharmaceuticals companies are probably value buy. So where is a chance of correction with Karnataka result?
As long as global market remain strong with low inflation and rate of interests on fixed deposit or PPF etc in India remain low chances is market will move higher... . In 2006/ 2007 crude was 80-120 range but that didn’t influence the market to move higher and higher till the bubble burst in a place far from India. Am I missing something? With regards
fcsa
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@Pranabkolkatay, Hey thanks for the refreshing response... Karnataka because of sentiment and its psychological effect on expectations about 2019 elections - and the elections take place on a weekend so will positions be reduced tomorrow? ... plus:
- The seriousness of the Iran issue is yet to play out. India will be badly affected if it escalates - Iran is our top 3 oil suppliers. And there is the Chabbar Port issue...
- Europe and the US will get into complications in their relationship
- The dollar and crude have shot up as a result of the Iran issue... our balance of payments will get hit... FIIs may temporarily withdraw from India and emerging markets
- Nifty has been on a roll since 23rd March... How long will it go on without any significant correction?
For all this however... I check the momentum and technicals and go with that alone... People like us cannot afford to go on fundamentals - that is for the big boys... who control more than 80% of the market.
Cheers
Pranabkolkatay
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@fcsa, I agree on your points like issues on Iran. USA might have a vested interest now on escalating the issues those have potential chances to increase crude prices. If I am not wrong, since 1974, only in recent years USA is less dependent on import (for crude) and probably nowadays has turned to be an exporter. So in one way that is harmful for India. But what we found that Indian companies and Government have gradually passed the prices to consumers and I will not be surprised if Indians gradually tuned to ay higher for fuel. I expect in worst case of a coalition government in 2019, DIIs will be net seller for the stocks due to uncertain future policies especially mutual fund may be worried about the availability of liquidity and will sell the premium stocks but if (and only if) global market remains buyoant I expect FIIs may return in market to buy those stocks which DII or fund houses are in possession nowadays.
Market may not fall If and only if global situation doesn’t worsen much but might remain in a plateue for a considerable period of tme what you technical experts call as sidewise reaction, whatever be the result of 2019.
But, may be even fund houses or Institutions will not sell stock like TTK prestige etc those are so called overly priced.
I find the dark cloud over the sky from my window and believe it is better to avoid taking put options thinking of Karnataka. If Maruti tries to push then it can itself has the capacity to lift the market after 15th May with the hope there will be good distribution of rain.
It is the global market that we need to look at it more to trade on Indian market.
You are always free to correct me if I am missing something.
fcsa
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@Pranabkolkatay, And as far as manipulation goes check the SBIN chart for October 18-19 2017 just before the bank recapitalisation was announced by the government on 25th October. The MFI was quietly rising since September 27th despite the price falling and 2 days before the announcement price started rising.
I found that suspicions and went long on 23rd October at about 245 (futures price). On 25th I closed at 320!! DII's and FII's can certainly play against the retail trade and make profits even in large volume counters. Some indicators like MFI, Renko etc can give a hint of what the smart money is doing.