i strongly feel nifty is going down now. Market has been over streched without any meaningful pullbacks, if it doesn't hold 15650 levels we might see lows up to 15300. if that also fails then it will be start of a new downtrend.
ritwik5ingh
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@acco96062 yes but market doesn't operate on your feelings
acco96062
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@ritwiksingh2000, time will tell brother !
johntradingwick
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@acco96062, As soon as the market falls, the majority of retailers start to feel bearish. But in fact, if you look at the bigger picture, the market structure is still bullish. If you look at the following 2 charts, it will become much more clear to you:
acco96062
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@johntradingwick, I've been bearish from last month .It's not based on mere one day fall.
The market is at all time high.
The index heavyweights
Hdfc bank, reliance, hdfc, Icici bank,axis bank ,Kotak Bank are almost 10-15 % away from all time high.
Only two heavyweights tcs and Infosys are near all time high.
Bank Nifty didn't touch all time high when Nifty touched all time high.
It's common sense that when the index is moving higher the market leaders should also move higher.
Also if you look at the volume on the nifty futures, there's been reduction in volume when Nifty is going higher.
A fake breakout.
A gap down after hitting all time high.
All Market experts on tv, news websites proclaiming that nifty will go even higher.
All brokers in their research reports asking to invest in large caps.
Also if you check the advance decline ratio today in nifty 915 advances ,1113 declines, 72 unchanged.
All these things raise a red flag for me.
Yes the charts show bullish momentum.
Also the india vix was at multi year low when Nifty hit all time high last week.
Not very comfortable if it suddenly spikes up.
And it has done it in the past.
When everything in the charts look perfect it's time to be little sceptical.