India interest rates seem to be close to a near term peak

Every time the yield curve becomes flat or inverted, i.e. the gap between short-term and long-term rates becomes close to zero or negative, it has signaled a fall in yields over the next few months. While one can not be sure as the world economy is in a state of flux, history tells us that probability is high.

Also, one can notice that every time, the rates are peaking at lower levels than before. This is because of a fundamental change in inflationary trends Indian economy, where due to various economic reforms, structural changes, and monetary policy, the long-term inflation rate has been trending down.

As and when this happens, this will be positive for the Indian economy as well as markets.


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