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LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN)_Long Term_Monthly_03.06.2018

NSE:LICHSGFIN   LIC HOUSING FINAN
Stock: LIC Housing Finance ( LICHSGFIN )
Date of Analysis: 03rd June 2018

Trade Entry : Long Term Investment

Type of Trade: Long term trade

Reason to take or to not to take or keep it under observation:

Technical:
Analysis based on monthly chart

1. There was lot of selling and bearish sentiment in the month of May 2018.
2. Monthly candle of May 2018 has engulfed previous three candles. Which is a strong bearish sentiment
3. Area to watch out is 402 to 382 and If it breaks 382 then 307 to 280
4. Also it has been observed that price reverses just after breaking 50 SMA and current situation price has just broken 50 SMA . So we can watch and see how it goes for next couple of months.
5. In past stock has mimicked Nifties movement but since October 2017 it is going in opposite direction of Nifty . If Nifty reverses then this stock will plunge further.
6. Delivery percentage is not good


Fundamentals:
Past quarterly financial trend is positive (Even though the financial trend is positive stock has plunged)
Quality is Good and Valuation is attractive. Hence, it seems to be a good buy for long term.
While Price (-35.45%) has fallen, earnings (3.03%) have increased over the last year.
In past one year return on Sensex and the sector is 13.13% and 14.04%. However, stock has returned (negative) - 35.45%
Shareholding : FII holdings have decreased by -1.14% in Mar 18
Shareholding : DII holdings have decreased by -5.43% in Mar 18
Net Sales: YOY growth in quarter ended March 2018 is 7.08% vs 12.21% in March 2017
Stand along Net Profit: YOY Growth in quarter ended Mar 2018 is 1.92% vs 18.12% in March 2017. Probably the reason for the stock to plunge further.
Debt to equity ratio is very high as compared to peers. Most of the peers have half or even lower debt equity ratio than LIC Housing except few.
Earning reports is expected to release on 30th July 2018. That would be the right time to analyses the stock again after checking the earnings report.

Additional Information:

Wall street is bullish on this stock. Average target is approx. 623
Indian investors are also Bullish on this stock. Average target is approx. 677

Brief Summary :
Technicals looks bearish
Fundamentals looks good.
An investor needs to wait for couple of months and analyses the entry after the earning reports is released.

This is just my view and not an investment advise. Please consult your investment advisor before investing in these or other stocks.
Trade active: Inverted hammer in June and peiercing canlde in July 2018. Game on
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