Wyckoff Cycle Analysis: L&TF Bullish and Counter-Trend

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The Wyckoff method is a comprehensive way to interpret market cycles and predict future price movements. By identifying the various phases of accumulation and distribution, traders can make more informed decisions about entries, exits, and trend continuation. It is particularly useful in identifying key turning points in the market, such as bullish breakouts or bearish reversals.

Summary of Phase-Wise Levels:

1. Phase A: Selling Climax & Preliminary Support
  • Selling Climax (SC): 134.10
  • Preliminary Support (PS): 137.66

2. Phase B: Accumulation
  • Automatic Rally (AR): 151.95
  • Secondary Test (ST): 129.66

3. Phase C: Spring (Shakeout)
  • Spring: 134.10 (level may briefly dip below this before recovering)

4. Phase D: Upthrust/Mark-Up
  • Sign of Strength (SOS): 159
  • Bullish Upthrust (BU/LSP): 151.90

5. Phase E: Mark-Up Continuation
  • Mark-Up Continuation: 182.70

Key Levels to Watch for the Bullish Scenario:

1. Resistance at 159: Current Key Resistance: The market is currently consolidating below the resistance level of 159, which is the previous Sign of Strength (SOS).
2. Next Resistance at 182.70: After successfully breaking above 159, the next resistance level is 182.70. This level would be the first major target to the upside as the price continues its upward trajectory.

Key Levels to Watch for the Bearish Scenario:

1. Support at 137.66:

137.66 is the next significant support level in the Wyckoff cycle. If the price starts to decline after failing to break 159, it could test this level as a potential support.
A break below 137.66 would signal further weakness, potentially leading to a deeper drop.

2. Critical Support at 134.10:

134.10 marks the Selling Climax (SC) in Phase A, which is the lowest point. If the price breaks below 137.66 and moves towards 134.10, it would indicate a significant bearish shift.

For the bullish scenario to be validated, a breakout above 159 should be accompanied by a significant increase in volume, confirming strong buyer interest and ensuring that the price movement is sustainable. A lack of volume during the breakout could suggest a false move, and a retracement back to lower levels would be more likely. Conversely, in the bearish scenario, a failure to break 159 coupled with declining volume could indicate waning buyer interest, signaling a potential reversal and confirming the bearish trend.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis and projections are based on technical patterns and historical data, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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