fcsa
Long

Maruti - Start of Wave-V ?

NSE:MARUTI   MARUTI SUZUKI IND
It looks like Maruti is about to start Wave-V of the Elliot Wave (1hr candles)

It is worth trying a long position because the SL can be just a few points below May 30th low 8572... say 8560.
If it dips below that then the Wave structure visualised in the chart is not valid and has to be adjusted.
Even those who trade in futures are risking only about Rs2000-2500 per lot since the lot size is 75.
Basically I am quite sure that Maruti will go up in the June contract.
Comment: Do not trade Maruti today
Trade active: Long @ 8583 SL 8550 June contract... risky but very tight SL so max loss of about 2300 per lot... targets to be decided
Comment: Looks like this was a good entry. Trailing SL so no loss if it falls. Hoping for 8740 (June futures)... lets see
Trade closed manually: Closed @8616 (June futures)... today I am trading for small movements with multiple lots
Comment: 8619 was the 5 minute Kijun Sen line... closed because price could not break this resistance
Trade active: Went long on June contract towards close of market yesterday. Trade active. Hoping for 8871 which is the 50 MA (futures June price)
Trade closed manually: Closed @8826 (futures price). Shall re-enter from lower levels. About 225 points per lot profit...
Trade closed: target reached: Bottom of Target range reached.
Comment: Target 2 reached
Comment: Long again in Maruti futures
Trade active: Position open
Trade closed manually: Closed @ 8930 (futures price).

Maruti has now hit the 38.2% Fib retracement of the drop from December to end May. It may correct a bit or consolidate. But the trend is up. Levels I am expecting eventually are: 9000/90150/9345 (futures prices)
Comment: Top of Target Range-1 reached
Trade active: Went long again on June 8th. Still holding.
Trade closed manually: Closed yesterday. Expecting a bounce from about 8873...
Comment: This is perhaps a good time to go long on Maruti. SL below 8850.
Comment: Immediate target reached: 8999 in futures market
Comment: Refer to the new chart as well:

Comments

Absolutely beautiful trade by you on Maruti, and excellent . It is probably going towards 9350 mark (at least). Do you track Bajaj Auto or Axis Bank? I feel extremely bullish for Bajaj Auto and I am holding call option and I hope for a profit here. Today I found Axis bank ~533. Last three months it is moving in the range of 508 to 565. I felt this zone 533 to 535 is a middle one. Also many reputed foreign and Indian firms have provided positive future for the bank. It seems the stock is investor / Traders friendly. I bought a call option today. Hoping Bank Nifty to go higher tomorrow. Today market movement was very positive to me. It didn't work break 10790 and closed at 10800 above amidst all global were negative. the European bank has kept its interest rate unchanged and European Indices as well FTSE has turned green now. Hopefully Nifty should recover tomorrow along with Axis bank and Bajaj Auto as well Maruti. Do you have any chart to refer for Axis or Bajaj Auto for reference? It would be nice of you if you kindly give your comment on that.
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fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, Thanks a lot. Yes even I feel great about my analysis of Maruti, Tata Global & Jublfood.

When you are bullish why not sell Puts rather than buying Calls? Just wanted to know since it looks like you trade a lot of options. I write Puts when bullish as in Yes Bank currently.

Axis:
- In terms of candle structure it appears to be consolidating since the start of June.
- However OI has gone up. CE 540/550 have the biggest additions and total OI. PE 530 has the biggest addition of OI.
- I have more confidence in Indusind & Yes. In Yes I traded long in futures intraday today and also have written puts @ PE 330 which I am holding

Bajaj-Auto:
- Seems to have a bit of upward momentum. Daily candle is trying to push up above the Ichimoku cloud. But very narrow range series of Dojis so there may be a breakout in any direction.
- CE 3000 and PE 2850 has had maximum addition of OI
- Basically waiting for a breakout but I can't figure out in which direction.
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@fcsa, Thank you as always for your kind advice . My last broker never allowed me to write calls or puts if I hadn't that in my possession.Tomorrow I think market will be jittery. As like Bajaj Auto. Can go down drastically also as it has failed to climb up. Thinking of squaring of my calls and you have correctly advised to sell as per direction. will now try to write off calls or puts in my new trading account with 5 Paisley. Feeling uncertain on overall market. July call options are highly priced especially for Nifty. Certainly there are good scope for eating those premiums. Just one query if I wish to short Nifty call tomorrow, then which strike price should be the best. On the money (say 10700 call or 10500 call). A tough question may be but you are the most learned one to answer that. Please advise. Surely be a good help to me. Thank you again.
Reply
fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, Just finishing my EOD analysis session and noticed your message.

NIfty: Greatest PE OI addition is at 10500 strike... about 135,000 contracts. However, a somewhat reliable addition number would be over a million OI addition. That is happening in CE strike 10900 with OI addition of 1,038,975 and next comes CE 11,000 strike. PE 10700 has had a reduction of about 89000 contracts since yesterday. So you have to decide buy/sell a call/put. Personally I would not deal in Nifty or Bank Nifty till next week.

As far as risk goes price can go UP DOWN or SIDEWAYS. A call/put buyer only makes profit if the trade moves in his direction. A writer makes money if it goes his way or even stays sideways. So a writer has a statistical advantage of 2/3 but a buyer requires one direction which is 1/3. Something like 80-90% of buyers end up in loss. And then there is the decay factor in favour of the writer.

Theoretically writing has unlimited loss but then you can always close it manually. Plus you get the premium deposited in your account the moment you make the trade. So personally I never understand why people say "unlimited risk" in writing.

I mean there is huge risk in the spot market which is long only so a downtrend leaves you open to loss. But no one alerts you to that. In fact brokers are always saying we are in bull market so that clients and potential clients keep investing and providing the broker commission. Go back in history and read the dishonest broker prediction in the year 2015. It dell around 30% or so I think and yet all the "experts" talked about a "bull market".

However, that said, I must admit that I myself am not sure of where the Nifty is going. I had written Nifty 10700 and 10800 puts which I closed for small profits. I see clearer patterns in Maruti, Tata Global, Yes Bank, Jublfood etc. so I have positions there.

But these are just my opinions. I am not a SEBI registered advisor. But if you see my past posts you will notice that there is a very high level of accuracy.
Reply
@fcsa, Till afternoon I was bullish on Nifty but eventually thought its a dangerous assumption. 1. per capita income has been dropped over past few years significantly. 2. Banks are totally in mess. 3. There is no good intelligent move found by the government to recover economy. 4. RBI has become a puppet though I feel previous RBI governor was also not doing proper justice in auditing the banks. 4. Trade deficit is alarmingly high. 5. There is nothing much to cheer anywhere. 6.However I expected that coming general election is a kind of light under the tunnel. The coalition government is better than a ill- performed governance. A very fairy way to think that market participants will hope for better in future. But money matters. People who invest in mutual fund are well aware about economy and will shy away to put their money in MF. They will redeem more than new investment. I believe that income of LIC has also significantly dropped in its core business over past few years and whatever cash they have probably forced to deploy that in some non-performing assets by the political leaders. I Situation is of India is alarming. The market theoretically should run at below 6200 level. The advantage of decreased crude prices has felt nowhere but if dollar goes higher then the definite will be multiplied. I Export oriented It sectors are overbought in true sense and they have marginal influence to hold Nifty. There is darkness. I to write one put or call takes 60000 to 70000 total margin money. So retailers can't afford those. Operators especially fund houses doesn't encourage to retailers to directly invest in market. They are very United and try to eat premiums. However today I have taken out most of my investment and taken call options of 30000 rs. I will put stop-loss now!!!!!
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Pranabkolkatay Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, typo definite to be replaced by .deficit .Also there are many other areas also. But Language is a medium of expression and feelings. It is the emotion and feeling that comes first language second.

'Bhasa bhaber bahok, bhab I pradhan bahasa pare' - Swami Vivekananda.
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Quadricycles are now allowed for commercial purposes. Will this news hurt the stock price of Maruti?
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fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, Maruti has a very solid market position in passenger cars... so I don't know how this will affect it.
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It's flying today!!
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fcsa praveen2789
@praveen2789, yes... closed @8826 futures price. Shall re-enter from lower levels.
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