VPA_TRADER

PENNANT-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILE

Long
NSE:MCX   MULTI COMMODITY EX
Disclaimer-:
1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.

Volume Profile-:
Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price.
2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes
3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case

POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place.

IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-:
1. Stock formed a big triangular pattern, gave breakout and then rallied.
2. Recent it formed a flag-pennant-like pattern i:e a brief pause.
3. That can be confirmed by the volume in that region. Mark the low volume as compared to the high volume when it started rising.This confirms that the current pennant pattern was just a pause. And thus when breakout happens the uptrend will resume.

TARGET WITH LOGIC-:
Since its a brief pause. and within that pause buying ( green,blue) volume is more than selling (red ) volume . There is a high chance the current expected up-move should be kind of equivalent to previous move (could be more too).
So a Fib Extension 100% target seems feasible.

ENTRY-:
Entry at CMP since it has just given a breakout out of the small triangular pattern with trend-lines tested at least 3 times gives us a nice conviction.

STOP_LOSS
1450 and 1165 are good support levels. But since 1450 is too close to CMP , it will be a narrow stop-loss. Thus a conservative stop-loss is better for a swing trade in 1W.
So 1165 could be a good spot.
Its necessary to trail stop-loss as per your strategy. You may use Moving Average with ATR(14) as buffer.


EXIT

Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals.

1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit

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**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.

**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.

Comments

What time frame you have taken to archive the target
Reply
VPA_TRADER sanjaydvbhardwaj01
@sanjaydvbhardwaj01, 1W because the the triangular consolidation has been happening since Aug 2020
Reply
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