Whatever I will say here I will say on the basis of my own direct experience, will say only the truth and will say it boldly and directly. If it hurts anyone here, my apologies in advance.
In my own personal experience, TA and both do not work. People pick them up, because they seem easy, in forums like these everyone is using TA tools like trend limes, indicators etc, and also every other blog is dedicated to TA and EW only, so beginners also pick them up. Herd mentality is at play here - "because every one is using it, it must be working". But unfortunately that's not the case. Any tool which is being used by 80% of the people in the market is simply bound to fail.
Look at the truth, TA is more than 100 years old, and still in the top 1000 richest people list you will not find any TA! But you will find many Value Investors, and value investing is hardly ever discussed in forums and blogs!
Its not that there is absolutely nothing in TA, there are indeed some methods which work, but they have some capital drawdown which requires you to manage money very strictly and properly. You cannot deploy more than 30% of capital at a time while using them. And when you do that you also bring down your CAGR , so much so that your CAGR becomes much lower than what is available in value investing. There is no wonder that Value Investors keep dominating the richest list!
also does not go too far. There is so much of ambiguity in (and mind it, I know Pretcher's , Neo lliott Wave and also ) that experts always almost differ in their counting till the time the move is complete. If its so much ambiguous how will you make money using it?
My advise is that after 6 years of losses, please better quit trading. There are other avenues in life where money can be made. Do some kind of job, save regularly, make FDs etc. But please for God's sake do not give away your hard earned money for free to others.
Also check Rupam's post which was on a similar line:
You have generalised your views based on your perception. And more dangerous is that you are Backing your claims by imaginary and fake numbers and stats.
For your kind information your methodology is a part of Technical Analysis so you are contradicting your own self by questioning TA.
This seems more of a biased view with an intention to promote your own methodology.
With changing times one has to evolve to be in the race.
Take cricket for eg. Gone are the days when first team scoring 250 runs on the board in one day match was considered a daunting task to chase for the team batting second.
With changing field rules, influence of T20, players are innovating different shots, adapting to different situations and accepting that even 300+ score is not safe.
Then again Different situation needs to be dealt differently.
The way a batsman selects his shot depends primarily on what game format is he playing T20 format, 50-50 game or 5 day test match
Again these things will effect his decision making.....kind of pitch he is playing, size of the field. and wickets in hand. Different situation requires different strategies. So goes for TA too. Aplying one rule for all the scenarios may not work. One has to be flexible in the approach
I returned back to India in early 2014 and wanted to get into full time trading, but before that I want to study and understand completely the present set up. I opened Trading account and stated looking at every day from 9.00 to 15.30 the trading activities and understood the present set up of trading and how it works completely. Also started watching TV Business Channels, joined in many forums, studied about various Technical Indicators, so on. Also subscribed for calls with some advisory firms to test their calls and what not, explored all available things, I only did all these from July 2014 to November 2015 and never did any trade, only exploring and testing. In December I sat and worked out a strategy and did a test through paper trading and satisfied with my strategy. I have decided to take cues only Trading Ideas shared by authors in Trading View, No more watching of TV Channels during Trading hours, no more calls from any Advisory Firms... Only listening and talking to the market through charts. Only 50 SMA and 8 EMA are my indicators and guides. The chart in front of you is telling what market wants to do, what else we need. We have cues from various authors in this forum, look at the chart, listen to it and talk to it. I know it is not easy and simple but it is very easy and simple if learn properly with involvement and determination...hard work is required and don't look for easy money, easy money is bauble.
With this I stated my Trading from January 02, 2017 with 50 K in Shares and another 50 k in commodities and made around 218 k in Shares and another 113 k in Commodities In January 2017.
In my experience and from what I learn, I will say that we should learn to dance to tunes of market and never never expect that Market will dance our tunes. Also remember this Golden words " Allow Others To Make Money". Also self discipline and consistency are very important, to be successful.
Here, I will take the opportunity to thank and appreciate all Authors sharing their Trading Views and in my evaluation the very best community, friends kindly keep it up
I want to personally thank, Mr Ashish Chauhan, who inspired me today with his Trading View in Tata Steel, I never do a trade on Budget Day, but this Budget Day I did a Trade in Tata Steel
Also, I would like to thank and appreciate Vanathi and Rupambose for sharing their very valuable advises.
Pankaj, appreciate very much for your sincere efforts in your studies and keep it up, my friend.