A trader has messaged me privately, has confessed that for past 6 years he had been trying hard to make TA & Elliott Wave work for him and its not turning around and shall he continue the effort or drop it? Shall he entirely drop stock market altogether?
Answer:
Whatever I will say here I will say on the basis of my own direct experience, will say only the truth and will say it boldly and directly. If it hurts anyone here, my apologies in advance.
In my own personal experience, TA and Elliott Wave both do not work. People pick them up, because they seem easy, in forums like these everyone is using TA tools like trend limes, indicators etc, and also every other blog is dedicated to TA and EW only, so beginners also pick them up. Herd mentality is at play here - "because every one is using it, it must be working". But unfortunately that's not the case. Any tool which is being used by 80% of the people in the market is simply bound to fail.
Look at the truth, TA is more than 100 years old, and still in the top 1000 richest people list you will not find any TA! But you will find many Value Investors, and value investing is hardly ever discussed in forums and blogs!
Its not that there is absolutely nothing in TA, there are indeed some methods which work, but they have some capital drawdown which requires you to manage money very strictly and properly. You cannot deploy more than 30% of capital at a time while using them. And when you do that you also bring down your CAGR, so much so that your CAGR becomes much lower than what is available in value investing. There is no wonder that Value Investors keep dominating the richest list!
Elliott Wave also does not go too far. There is so much of ambiguity in Elliott Wave (and mind it, I know Pretcher's Elliott Wave, Neo lliott Wave and also Harmonic Elliott Wave) that experts always almost differ in their counting till the time the move is complete. If its so much ambiguous how will you make money using it?
My advise is that after 6 years of losses, please better quit trading. There are other avenues in life where money can be made. Do some kind of job, save regularly, make FDs etc. But please for God's sake do not give away your hard earned money for free to others.
Also check Rupam's post which was on a similar line:
Comment
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I just forgot to mention here that trading Timewave with me is an equally valid and in fact a better option! :)
Absolutely right sir..I also want to add my comments to my traders friend that trading looks easy but this is the most difficult game...understand it..No easy money..Don't think that from market you can make easy money....money can be made but mind it there is more hard work then any other work untill you master it..& its a expensive one...here you had to give money to market as tution fees to learn the market..untill and unless you are ready to loose you cannot learn..
pratik2358
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i neither agree nor disagree with ur views , sir as everyone has their views //...
but mightbe luckily u can say that 9 / 10 my trade and trade predictions goes right based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ..ya there is also addition of something OTHER but ...it has its importance too!!!
indiamarketoutlook
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Technical Analysis is a very vast subject
You have generalised your views based on your perception. And more dangerous is that you are Backing your claims by imaginary and fake numbers and stats.
For your kind information your methodology is a part of Technical Analysis so you are contradicting your own self by questioning TA.
This seems more of a biased view with an intention to promote your own methodology.
pankajvw
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@indiamarketoutlook, I am using astrology dear friend to determine market direction. If TA works for you I am fine with it.
@indiamarketoutlook, ...and TA became so vast because, earlier methods were not working, so new people came with new ideas, they were again not working, and some more people came and again new ideas, and so it kept becoming even more vast. Why Value Investing is not so vast?
indiamarketoutlook
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@pankajvw With changing times one has to evolve to be in the race.
Take cricket for eg. Gone are the days when first team scoring 250 runs on the board in one day match was considered a daunting task to chase for the team batting second.
With changing field rules, influence of T20, players are innovating different shots, adapting to different situations and accepting that even 300+ score is not safe.
Then again Different situation needs to be dealt differently.
The way a batsman selects his shot depends primarily on what game format is he playing T20 format, 50-50 game or 5 day test match
Again these things will effect his decision making.....kind of pitch he is playing, size of the field. and wickets in hand. Different situation requires different strategies. So goes for TA too. Aplying one rule for all the scenarios may not work. One has to be flexible in the approach
pankajvw
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@indiamarketoutlook, "Changing Time" - that's what my methodology tells me in advance. Please check about page on my blog timingnifty.wordpress.com
pankajvw
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@indiamarketoutlook, fake numbers??? I have 3 places where I post every trade of mine. Number 1 is tradingview, 2 is my telegram channel timingnifty, third is timingnifty.wordpress.com. Anyone is free to verify. I have done everything live!
Subra1953
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Completely agree with you. Pankaj. When I stared trading in Stock Market in early 70's ( at the age of 23), I lost almost around 600 thousands in a year, big amount those days. All advised me to quit and concentrate on my job, but I was not for it and want to fight back and so determined on that. I just took off from the market and want to analyse where I went wrong and failed. I found out the reasons for my failure, to name few, timing, trading against market, excitement and fear, creed, poor money management... I started trading again after six months with 100 thousands and started trading only with 50 thousands and kept 50 thousands in reserve. i made 18 k in the first month, 13 k in the second month and so on at the end of a year there was a balance of 220 k in my reserve account, at the end of third year i completely recovered my loss and ended up with a surplus of 180 K . That gave me confidence and started trading with 100 k and continued my trading successfully with huge profits till 2003 and then I quit totally and took a foreign assignment and went abroad.
I returned back to India in early 2014 and wanted to get into full time trading, but before that I want to study and understand completely the present set up. I opened Trading account and stated looking at every day from 9.00 to 15.30 the trading activities and understood the present set up of trading and how it works completely. Also started watching TV Business Channels, joined in many forums, studied about various Technical Indicators, so on. Also subscribed for calls with some advisory firms to test their calls and what not, explored all available things, I only did all these from July 2014 to November 2015 and never did any trade, only exploring and testing. In December I sat and worked out a strategy and did a test through paper trading and satisfied with my strategy. I have decided to take cues only Trading Ideas shared by authors in Trading View, No more watching of TV Channels during Trading hours, no more calls from any Advisory Firms... Only listening and talking to the market through charts. Only 50 SMA and 8 EMA are my indicators and guides. The chart in front of you is telling what market wants to do, what else we need. We have cues from various authors in this forum, look at the chart, listen to it and talk to it. I know it is not easy and simple but it is very easy and simple if learn properly with involvement and determination...hard work is required and don't look for easy money, easy money is bauble.
With this I stated my Trading from January 02, 2017 with 50 K in Shares and another 50 k in commodities and made around 218 k in Shares and another 113 k in Commodities In January 2017.
In my experience and from what I learn, I will say that we should learn to dance to tunes of market and never never expect that Market will dance our tunes. Also remember this Golden words " Allow Others To Make Money". Also self discipline and consistency are very important, to be successful.
Here, I will take the opportunity to thank and appreciate all Authors sharing their Trading Views and in my evaluation the very best community, friends kindly keep it up
I want to personally thank, Mr Ashish Chauhan, who inspired me today with his Trading View in Tata Steel, I never do a trade on Budget Day, but this Budget Day I did a Trade in Tata Steel
Also, I would like to thank and appreciate Vanathi and Rupambose for sharing their very valuable advises.
Pankaj, appreciate very much for your sincere efforts in your studies and keep it up, my friend.