Tactical Breakout Play on NG

Jun 11

Before diving into the setup:
It’s important to acknowledge that recent long trades on Natural Gas have underperformed, largely due to:
• Muted global demand amid mild temperatures
• Weak industrial offtake
• Limited U.S. LNG export activity, despite geopolitical tensions

This has translated into a persistent bearish bias and fading upside momentum on every rally. However, the current technical structure warrants a tactical long trade with well-defined risk.

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Technical Thesis – 15-Min Chart Analysis
1. Breakout from Tight Consolidation
Price has broken out of a narrow consolidation band (range: $3.600–$3.615) with a strong bullish candle and follow-through. The break above horizontal resistance is supported by steady volume expansion.
2. Higher Lows Formation
The chart shows a sequence of higher lows, indicating buyers defending key support zones, especially around the $3.565–$3.570 level.
3. Retest & Hold of Breakout Zone
After the breakout, price is currently retesting the zone around $3.615, holding it well. This is a textbook breakout-retest continuation setup, which allows a long entry with limited risk.
4. Momentum Shift
The previous downtrend was halted and reversed over several hours, showing signs of buyer re-emergence. If this move sustains, it may mark the beginning of a short-term uptrend.

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Trade Plan
• Entry: Buy above $3.625
• Stop Loss: Below $3.605
• Target 1: $3.68
• Target 2: $3.72
• Time Frame: Intraday to 24 hours

Reward to Risk: > 2:1
Trade Type: Tactical, not positional. Close if $3.605 is breached.

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Caveats & Strategy Note

This is not a conviction long on fundamental grounds — LNG demand remains subdued, and seasonality is not favorable yet. This is purely a technical trade based on price action and pattern structure.

Jun 13

Trade closed manually