It's been a long time I haven't posted on this site. The very reason was, I was biased towards the short at lower levels of the Nifty . With Nifty crossing above 8226, which was considered to be a crucial resistance, the short-term picture of it got changed.
With Nifty moving above 8226, I better preferred to keep "wait & watch" view observing the Nifty then to change my view on it. I am still biased towards the short, as the possibility of Nifty going below the low of 7893.80 cannot be neglected. The reason is, the technical indicators, on various time-scales, have not been showing the favourable situation yet. Secondly, considering the Elloitt's theory of wave principle, it looks like the Nifty is either forming a "flat" type of corrective pattern or a combination of corrective patterns, being a "complex correction."
Besides, if you look at the chart given above, one can observe that Nifty has made a "leading diagonal" from its low of 6825.80 to its high of 8968.70. A indicates either it is wave "A" or "1". Also, considering the EWT principles, it has been observed many times that when there emerges a formation of "leading diagonal" there comes deeper correction.
Today, Nifty made a new all-time high of 9122.75, until now, breaching its previous high of 9119.20 by some marginal points. The question is, "shall we consider this new high a boost to new bull run or is it a trap for the investor?" Also, yesterday I came to know that one of the big player of Indian stock market, made his long-term view on Nifty is around 130,000 by 2030 giving due consideration to its previous performance.
By stating this view here, neither I raised question mark on Nifty attaining the said target nor do I try to raise the question on the credibility on the same, as the view is for the next 12-15 years. And who knows what gets unfolded in the future. But, what we see currently, certainly, does not signify that a new bull run has started.
The reason behind questioning the credibility of the current movement of the Indian stock market is, though it is trying to show a fascinated movement by making new highs, the stock tells the other story. The market is more likely making some adjustments by giving rise to some specific stocks, rather giving an all-round buying and rise in all leading stocks.
One can observe the same by questioning that what appreciation has he/she has got in his/her portfolio with regard to previous high of 9119.20 or 8968.70?
Personally, being more inclined towards short, I believe Nifty is yet to get bottomed-out and one may witness a sharp fall in the Nifty in near future.
Disclaimer: All views, charts, comments, post or any materials of any kind discussed, published, posted and/or commented are for educational purpose only.