protrader1969

Nifty for 16th September

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
It was roller coaster ride on 'friday the 13th'. And some horror for those whose stop-losses got triggered. That included me too. Nifty and Bank nifty Short side trades got stopped out. But to tell you all truth, I have still retained some shorts on Nifty and Banknifty both. Why? Because of some unusual behaviour by indices!
One, such big moves generally take place on Thursdays, the expiry day (or wednesday, pre expiry day) and not on Friday until and unless it is news driven. Because on expiry day, due to compulsory squaring off of positions, a natural move in any direction can happen.
Second, even the volumes in Nifty & Banknifty spot are higher on friday than on thursday and in futures , Nifty volumes on friday are almost same as that on Thursday but BNF futures volumes are higher on friday ( than on thursday). Generally we see very low volumes on fridays because people do not want to open new positions just before weekend since two days is a big time for any news to come out.
Third, Friday's high finished just 2.70 points above thursday's high as if to give a kind of pattern with higher high.
Due to all these reasons I found rise as artificial and as they say part of some index management. But we have to accept what charts say and data conveys. So lets look at other data.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional figures show that FIIs were net sellers by 405 Crs and DIIs were net buyers by 209 Crs . Final data for thursday (12 th ) show that FIIs net bought in Equity worth 2276 Crs and net sold in index futures and stock futures by 10006.5 Crs and 200 Crs respectively. FIIs are slowly turning buyers it seems.
2) Option chain data : On PUT side, highest total OI (26.86 lakhs) and fresh highest Put writing (11.29 lakhs) is on 11000 strike. 2nd highest total OI ( 16.16 lakhs) is on 10900 strike and 2nd highest fresh Put writing (8.13 lakhs) is at 10950 strike. Together this data suggest that 11000 is strong support and if Nifty comes between 10950 and 11000, buying would surely start. On CALL side, highest total OI (17.91 lakhs) is at 11100 but with miniscule fresh Call writing (1.275 lakhs). 2nd highest total OI (15.61 lakhs) is at 11200 which has highest fresh Call writing (5.19 lakhs). But figures on Call side are lower and I would call scattered, signifying loss of confidence among call writers. So for tomorrow 11200 looks OK resistance as per option chain data.
3) Charts- Nifty finished as a strong green candle with higher high (just above previous day's high) and lower low, a kind of bullish engulfing pattern. So during rise it did create some buying areas and closed much above 20 DEMA level. A reliable buying area, taking into account all data is shown on the 15 min chart.
All the best. Happy trading.
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