tomorrow is budget day and lot of movement is expected. You'll get a lot of calls/ideas saying this will happen, that will happen, go long, go short, etc.
But, as professional traders, we know that predicting is not our job, our job is to make money.
Believe me, whoever tells you that he knows what all will be announced in budget and how the stocks and index will react, he is lying. Nobody knows, not even Jaitley, that at what level will Nifty go. Hence, don't decide pehle se hi ki main to long hi jaunga, nifty badhega ya main to short karunga, nifty girega. That's a beginner's approach. Not ours :p Crazy movement is seen on budget day. So trade with caution and save yourself from swift movements against you. SL is must.
So, how do we do make money?
Here's my strategy, ( you can trade with other strategies too, but whatever I have written above is true for everything, that's why I titled it as a Must Read )
According to my analysis, I have marked levels on Nifty.
You can see R1 which is the Resistance, so if Nifty stays above today's CMP, there's no real resistance. You can buy as long as it stays above it, Nifty is strong.
You can see S1 and S2, they are Support points, but they might be breached if the market is unhappy with the budget. You can go short when it goes below these lines, with the line as SL.
And then you can see S*1, S*2, S*3 which are stronger support lines which shouldn't be easy to go through, and which should act as your take profit points. ( targets ) when you go short below S1,S2.
If it goes below S*1, Nifty is too weak then.
Additionally, you can see a special blue trendline, if it stays above it, then Nifty is ultra strong, below it, not so much...
Final words : Stay calm, follow your plan, don't rush, take quick action, be prepared for reversals. Thanks and best of luck :)
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To help you more, this is a 30 minute chart, from last budget, have a look.
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Same with white background, to make it more visible.
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See the magic ! Right exactly at the trendline and supportline junction , super support and big bar up :D
Cheers !!
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Well above the special trendline, as suggested nifty very strong :)
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Personally, exited the long position @8715 for intraday. Cheers !! ( had taken 8800 CE )
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Today finally touched the blue line and faced resistance over there. Very good up move by Nifty, well over the blue trendline.
Trade closed: target reached
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Personally, closed my positional holding in Nifty @8809 spot.
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Nifty not able to cross R1 , and now on the right side of the trendline. plan your trades accordingly.
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Lines always work. The white line (drawn a month ago ) acted as a good resistance . Watch for breakout. I think it will happen through gap up and not during intraday.
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As suggested, a gap up broke the white line. Now stay long as long as it's above white line. And initiate fresh longs if it takes support on it or goes down and again comes above. Thanks.