fcsa

Nifty - February gap filled...

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty filled the gap between Feb 2-4 and seems to have formed something of a double top .

Shorted with an SL above 10798 ( futures price) STBT.
Trade active: Holding short position
Trade active: Shorted various lots on May 14th-15th average price ~10730. Will hold till expiry and decided on roll over. May keep booking profits and shorting again on rallies. Trades going well till now. Also short on Bank Nifty since May 15=16.
Trade closed manually: Closed some lots @10430 and completely exited @10450... around 300+ points per lot

Comments

But tomorrow there is a surprise upside. Metals, IT NBFCs , private banks and very highly priced consumer goods might lead the market top. There might be a bull run across sectors besides auto. However Maruti too might go higher to reduce the exorbitantly high price of put options.We the retailers don't have enough money to short / buy futures. I took a put of 10500 yesterday. That has appreciated only 7% even after a fall of 80 points. It indicates market has liquidity to take it higher.
Reply
fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, Hi. Yes I only trade in futures, mostly Nifty 50. After my trading experience of a few years I have completely stopped watching business TV and the "experts" who come on it or even reading business news in the morning. I read the news at night - so that it does not affect my thinking during trading.

I go purely on technical factors because I think all the news is factored into the price action. Every weekend I do analysis and scans for likely trades and then stick to those few counters all week. I also prefer to take the big decisions based on weekly and daily charts and usually refer to 3 Line Break and Renko charts. Of course trade entries and exits are based on lower time frames like 30 min. Fibonacci and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo are my basic reference points. I also do my own probability studies with Fibonacci based multipliers and determine ranges for buying and selling.

I never go by OI or momentum... I don't like to be reactive, I prefer being proactive. You will notice in my posts that I pick counters much before the momentum sets in - Tata Chemicals and ICICI Bank trend and retracement end, Biocon, shorting ICICI almost at the top of the recent run up and then going long yesterday etc. It usually results in quick profits with little risk per lot.

YEs I do book profits and then again enter the trade. I try and trade in many lots for a limited movement in the direction of what I think the trend will be. Usually my SL or trailing SL is just a few points... usually not more than 3000-10000 loss per lot. I try and achieve a very precise analysis. If it goes against me by even very little I don't wait - I get out. Right now I have about 180 points per lot on Nifty and about 560 points per lot on Bank Nifty.

If it does go up tomorrow I will exit. Nice chatting with you. Cheers.
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@fcsa, Are you holding your shorts?
Reply
fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, No. I have been trying shorts since April end and made some small profits and losses. I had marked 10860 as the top of this rise. So when Nifty crossed that level I was very alert.

On May 14-15 I shorted quite a few lots between 1800-1700 or so. My target levels were 10428 (38.2% retracement of the drop from end Jan to end March) & 10453 (50% retracement of the rise from end March till May 15th). Yesterday I closed some lots @ 10430 and today completely exited at 10450. So it was an approx 300 points of profit per lot. In fact I went long intraday on a few lots at 10460 and closed at my target of 10520. (All future prices).

I have posted my Nifty level projections for today 24th May. See how precisely todays price action hit my levels. It is a probability projection study I have been doing with Fibonacci multipliers... I use it all the time for any trade I do. Check it out. It is very accurate. If I have time I will post tomorrow's projections.
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fcsa fcsa
@fcsa, * typo.... I shorted quite a few lots between 10800-10700 or so
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@fcsa, ok
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Pranabkolkatay Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, Will you keep in mind some news like Trump-south Korea etc on trading views for tomorrow etc? (just wondering, if you post the same) Though I really I don't know what is the global market view on this issue! Anyway Indian market has so far very strong today. I expect market will move upwards and might cross 10620. Bitten down metals etc will take the lead. Axis Bank along with other private banks are there to lead. Reliance will lead (as there is apparently some negative news on this) Though SBI might behave oppositely downward. Even bitten down Tata motor will move higher. Disclaimer: I have puts on Vedanta, Tata motors, Nifty and Tata steel and didn't sell my loss making longs in Maruti, Bata, Battery stock and SBI . My positions are exactly opposite that I feel how market will behave tomorrow as I have created shorts to day!! It has some how happened, though not intentional.
Reply
fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, I have not been tracking metals of late. But Vedanta has a doji - a kind of morning star candle on the daily charts so it may rise tomorrow. Maruti is a relatively safe long hold if you have bought in the spot market. The 1hr/30min charts indicate there could be some rise tomorrow.

As I said I read the news but I don't interpret it when taking trading decisions. I interpret the price action on charts - and price action factors in everything.
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@fcsa, ok!
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fcsa Pranabkolkatay
@Pranabkolkatay, I have posted Nifty levels for tomorrow (cash). Check it out and even todays levels. It is usually very accurate.
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