protrader1969

NIFTY for 23rd October

Long
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
The effect of Infosys drop in US markets due to whistle-blowers' complaint and very high provisioning in HDFC Q2 results were both felt today. Though I expected Banknifty too to take some hit, I think ICICI Bank and Axis Bank (during morning hours) didn't allow it to fall. Analysts expected better results from Axis Bank. After market hours Axis Bank announced earnings and posted a loss of 112.1 Crs which was way below expectation ( Street expected somewhere around 680-700 Crs net profit) which management said was due to one-time tax impact of 2138 Crs. The NII stood a 6102 Crs (up by 17%) YOY and NIM stood at 3.51% (highest in last 9 quarters), YOY. Both Gross NPA and Net NPA improved a bit. So all in all, except Net profit number rest of the numbers do not paint grim picture. It will be interesting to watch how price moves tomorrow and influences BNF.
1) FII & DII data: Today, both FIIs and Diis were Net sellers by 557.5 Crs and 985.5 Crs, respectively. Clearly, both unloaded infosys and HDFC bank a bit. But I do not expect same behaviour tomorrow if globally everything else remains same.
2) Option chain data: On PUT side, there is unwinding seen at 11600 and 11500 strikes though by small amounts. The highest total OI is at 11600 and 2nd highest total OI is at 11500, so my supports are still these 2 strikes, despite marginal unwinding. On CALL side, slightly bigger development- the highest total OI (21.02 lakhs) and highest fresh Call writing (10.12 lakhs) is seen at 11700. In my last post, I wrote that 11700 will be broken in a session or two. I still have no doubt about that. Today since it was bearish and could penetrate but not stay above 10700, it prompted call writers to write Calls at 11700. The 2nd highest total OI and fresh Call writing is seen at 11800. So my resistance is at 11800. Though Nifty will take time to go from 11700 to 11800.
3) Charts: On daily chart, Nifty finished as a red candle with higher high and higher low. Whenever I see such pattern- Strong rally interrupted by a red candle but with HH and HL, mostly I have seen a strong green candle next trading session. It might happen tomorrow as well. So my supports and buying areas also remain same. Go long when you see Nifty at supports marked on 15 min chart with appropriate SL.
Al the best. Happy trading.
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