Picture these news items:
1) Highest single day spike in cases (1,03,793) in India ever since the pandemic broke.
2) India is now only the 2nd country after US to record a 6-figure addition in infections in a single day.
3) Maharashtra accounts for over 61,000 cases out of 1lakh plus cases.
4) Maharashtra announces near lock down with malls, bars, restaurants, gyms, theatres, etc. closure. Full lock down on weekends! Other states too mulling strict measures.
5) Mumbai’s (the financial capital’s) tally of single day infections was also at an all- time high (11,206) on Sunday.
Don’t look at Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Hand Seng, DAX, FTSE, CAC- this crisis is home grown! Look only at SGX Nifty if you want.
1) FIIs were net sellers today in all segments- 932 Crs in equity cash, 1803 Crs in index futures (30% more than buy figure of 5,983 Crs), 2,291 Crs in stock futures (17% more than buy figure of 12,895 Crs). When was the last time you saw such concentrated FII selling? Normally whenever there is selling, selling in index and stock futures is observed somewhere near 5-7% and 2-3 % respectively. DIIs were meek net buyers by only 75 Crs. So what is the conclusion? Beware of FII selling! Corona fears are spooking FIIs and retailers alike.
2) Check options data- On PUT side, there is unwinding on all strikes above 14700. Max Put writing of 11000+ lots is seen on 14500, 14300 & 14200. Meaning, same number of Put writers today thought that these 3 strikes can act as support. Now shouldn’t Put writers be more confident of 14300 or 14200 as support (since it is almost 300+ points down)? Why there is not more Put writing on 14200 & 14300? Contrast that with build-up on Call side-Even ITM strike of 14600 shows call writing of 12305 lots- much more than OTM Put writing. Also, highest Call writing of 32,011 lots is seen at 14,800 strike- just 3 strikes above the CMP. Clearly, Call writers are more confident than Put writers.
3) On Charts, Nifty shows open=high- the classic bearish sign. Fell by almost 400 points, went down below 50 DEMA but managed to close just above it. Bank Nifty was much more bearish for obvious reasons and managed to close just above the lower band of Bollinger band below 20 & 50 DEMA but above100 DEMA.
This is clearly now the ‘SELL on RISE MARKET’. 14800 is clear resistance. Sell between 14785 & 14810 with SL at 14830 if you get opportunity, Nifty can go down a long way ( see the channel shown on chart).
1) Highest single day spike in cases (1,03,793) in India ever since the pandemic broke.
2) India is now only the 2nd country after US to record a 6-figure addition in infections in a single day.
3) Maharashtra accounts for over 61,000 cases out of 1lakh plus cases.
4) Maharashtra announces near lock down with malls, bars, restaurants, gyms, theatres, etc. closure. Full lock down on weekends! Other states too mulling strict measures.
5) Mumbai’s (the financial capital’s) tally of single day infections was also at an all- time high (11,206) on Sunday.
Don’t look at Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Hand Seng, DAX, FTSE, CAC- this crisis is home grown! Look only at SGX Nifty if you want.
1) FIIs were net sellers today in all segments- 932 Crs in equity cash, 1803 Crs in index futures (30% more than buy figure of 5,983 Crs), 2,291 Crs in stock futures (17% more than buy figure of 12,895 Crs). When was the last time you saw such concentrated FII selling? Normally whenever there is selling, selling in index and stock futures is observed somewhere near 5-7% and 2-3 % respectively. DIIs were meek net buyers by only 75 Crs. So what is the conclusion? Beware of FII selling! Corona fears are spooking FIIs and retailers alike.
2) Check options data- On PUT side, there is unwinding on all strikes above 14700. Max Put writing of 11000+ lots is seen on 14500, 14300 & 14200. Meaning, same number of Put writers today thought that these 3 strikes can act as support. Now shouldn’t Put writers be more confident of 14300 or 14200 as support (since it is almost 300+ points down)? Why there is not more Put writing on 14200 & 14300? Contrast that with build-up on Call side-Even ITM strike of 14600 shows call writing of 12305 lots- much more than OTM Put writing. Also, highest Call writing of 32,011 lots is seen at 14,800 strike- just 3 strikes above the CMP. Clearly, Call writers are more confident than Put writers.
3) On Charts, Nifty shows open=high- the classic bearish sign. Fell by almost 400 points, went down below 50 DEMA but managed to close just above it. Bank Nifty was much more bearish for obvious reasons and managed to close just above the lower band of Bollinger band below 20 & 50 DEMA but above100 DEMA.
This is clearly now the ‘SELL on RISE MARKET’. 14800 is clear resistance. Sell between 14785 & 14810 with SL at 14830 if you get opportunity, Nifty can go down a long way ( see the channel shown on chart).