From the past 2-3 weeks I have remained cautious with my StopLoss and missed out on a few opportunities. Every time Nifty oroved me wrong for these 2 weeks and climbed higher.
But this week will give a clearer picture. Nifty is pressing itself at the top against a long channel wall and the rising wedge too is crushing it's movement from the bottom.
To supplement this we have 3 Divergences - MACD, RSI and TRIX. Further the Fib extentions quite expire at these levels (around 14700-15100).
Now if Nifty can break them apart and march ahead then it needs some solid steam to force it up but again I'm back saying the probability of it falling is more. A healthy correction. Will Nifty break the shackles or fall back ? Let's see.
Trade active
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Many of you might have got puzzled with today's run of Nifty as it closed above the channel which I considered a very strong resistance. Well, going by pure technicals, that is a good sign but I some how see it as some kind of mental trap. Retail Investors are naive and I feel they are made to believe that the markets are all very strong whenever there is a dip.
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What we should do? Pick the stocks on your radar which haven't run much so far. At the same time keep a "VERY STRICT STOPLOSS" because just in case the next time Nifty tests the waters , it might struggle for a while before catching its breath again.
Market is mature. Rationalism will come into Play. the more the fall is delayed the bigger it will be. as you mentioned probability of fall is more. better to be cautious and not be leveraged and book profits. no one can time the top or the bottom.
piyushin2020
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@mayurdharod, It cannot remain sideways for long when RSI oscillators are so heated. It has to either breakdown the resistance or retest supports.
mayurdharod
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@piyushin2020, absolutely. This time its ways too heated.