protrader1969
Long

NIFTY for 14th AUGUST

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Traders who read my last two posts would be having mixed feelings. Me too! I wrote yesterday that tussle would ensue when Reliance would try to pull market up and other factors- Inaction on FPI surcharge, repee fall and poor IIP data- would try to take it down. But who will win was difficult to predict. But neither in my wildest dreams I thought Reliance would rise so much and Market would still fall so much! The bearishness which means was so huge that had Reliance not put its weight behind Nifty , it would have fallen by almost 300 points, or even more! Let's find out what we have in store for tomorrow. Today's analysis would be from different data points or events, if you are watching what is happenning elsewhere.
POSITIVES- If you read through FII & DII Buy/Sell data, we get a different feeling. Provisional data shows that FIIs were net sellers by 638 Crs (quite low as compared to fall in Nifty and BNF) and DIIs were net buyers by 201 Crs . The final data is strange- FIIS were net Buyers in Equity on secondary market by 306 Crs but net Sellers in 'primary market and others' by 1052 Crs . In debt too, FIIs were net buyers on secondary market but net sellers in ' primary market and others' by around 105 Crs . Further in Index and stock futures too FIIs are shown as net buyers! Now the extent of fall is not reflecting in Selling figures which means volume would be low. So as we check NIFTY futures daily volume , we do find that volume was almost same as that on friday but lower than each day in entire past week. Now what it means to me is that FIIs have nearly exhausted their selling stocks as of now. Whatever they are holding now- they want it to hold, atleast as of now. DIIs are perpetual buyers so they will look to buy tomorrow after such a massive fall today. Another development - DJIA is now trading at around 400 points up since Trump delayed enforcing tariffs till December 15th- Positive for all world markets.
NEGATIVES - Bad situation at HongKong as protestors and law enforcers both have raised their struggle levels; fear of slowdown and signs of recession. Argentina default and devaluation of its currency peso. Rupee fall.
So again what is likely to happen tomorrow? Based on these developments and data, Market might rise because of factors listed above from limits shown on chart. If it reaches 11115 level one can try shorting witha SL of around 60 points (yes SL is big here). So effective favourable trade is Buy @ around 10900, with SL at10860 and target at 11015.
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