NIFTY 50 – Close Below 50 EMA & SMA | Downside Levels Identified

Jan 9

Technical View:

Over the last two years, NIFTY has consistently shown that a daily close below both the 50 EMA and 50 SMA results in an average correction of 4–5%.

🔍 Current Structure:

Price has closed below 50 EMA & 50 SMA

Rising wedge structure near the top → breakdown risk

Weak follow-through after the recent high

🎯 Downside Levels (Supports & Targets)

🔹 Immediate Support: 25,450 – 25,400
(Recent demand zone & neckline support)

🔹 Target 1 (≈2%): 25,350 – 25,250
(First reaction zone after breakdown)

🔹 Target 2 (≈3%): 25,100 – 25,000
(Psychological level + prior consolidation)

🔹 Extended Target (4–5%): 24,600 – 24,400
(Historical average correction zone based on EMA/SMA breakdowns)

📌 Invalidation / Resistance

Resistance: 25,900 – 26,000
(A move back above this zone negates the immediate bearish view)

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is based purely on technical probabilities and historical behavior. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Use strict risk management.

Jan 13

Trade active

🔄 What to Expect Next

A retest of the 26,000 resistance zone is likely

This zone also aligns with EMA/SMA resistance

Selling pressure is expected near 26,000

If rejection occurs, the downward move may resume

🎯 Downside Levels (Supports & Targets)

🔹 Immediate Support: 25,450 – 25,400 (tested)
🔹 Target 1 (≈2%): 25,350 – 25,250
🔹 Target 2 (≈3%): 25,100 – 25,000
🔹 Extended Target (4–5%): 24,600 – 24,400