Though I said that trades in both directions are possible, if we see the data, it still is bear market. Normally on expiry day, Wild swings are expected and I thought that once Nifty fell to 10820 levels, it might bounce back since banknifty was at important support. But it did not happen till the end and hence I am saying it still is bears' market. Only piece of good news was Rupee improved and closed below 72.
1) FII & DII data: As per provisional data, FIIs (Net) sold shares worth 561 Crs and DIIs (net) bought shares worth 699 Crs . On 4th, FIIs sold shares worth 1203 Crs in Equity and that day Nifty staged some recovery and thus it looked like today on 5th we might have expiry above 10900. But we closed today almost flat, just 3.25% above yesterday's close. FIIs are not done selling.
2) Option chain data-On PUT side, the highest total OI ( 11.71 Lakhs) and highest fresh Put writing ( 7.69 lakhs) is at 10800 strike, prompting 10800 as credible support for now. On CALL side both strikes of 10900 and 11000 show almost similar total Oi and Call writing so both can be taken as OK resistances. So as per current market condition I would treat 10800 as support and 10900 as resistance. Tomorrow being first day of weekly series, volumes would be low and hence this range would hold I believe.
3) Charts- Nifty finished as a red candle with higher high and higher low. As of now, DJIA is trading 390 points up due to encouraging news about US - China trade talks and I would expect favourable conditions for gap-up openning. So once it approches our selling area as shown on chart, one can trade with proper SL.
All the best. Happy trading.