Nifty - Possible Breakdown path

Nov 2, 2016

As anticipated yesterday, Global equities are likely to breakdown. Nifty cant be lucky this time to hold 8500. Panic selling is around the corner below 8500. VIX of US & India are showing signs of fear. Nifty's first target should be 8400 then might bounce towards 8500-8540 then long leg down towards 8150-8200. Will take one step at a time. Manage your Stop losses carefully.

Nov 4, 2016

Trade closed: target reached

8400-8430, 1st target reached, Booked profits. Today, Nifty should close around 8400. India VIX is not showing much spike. Will short again on moday around 8470-8500 if it bounces or break below today's low.

Nov 4, 2016

Note

VIX is up only 4-5%. Giving clues that Bulls are not that fearful. If somehow Bulls manage to close Nifty above 8450 today then we are in for some upside surprise next week. Watchout for last hour activity.

Nov 4, 2016

Note

Nov 4, 2016

Note

Bulls Beware: Meanwhile on weekly charts significant pattern has emerged. Long awaited, Head & Shoulder breakdown with neckline at 8500-8550. Target is as deep as 8000. Weekly Close above 8550 will negate this pattern. Let's see how it goes.

Nov 7, 2016

Note

Wow! Nifty is behaving exactly as mentioned in the chart above. Pullback towards 8500-8550 is a super short Stop Loss 8600. Great risk reward for shorts. These kind of pullbacks are normal, trend reversal will take place only closing above 8600.

Nov 9, 2016

Note

As anticipated 5 days ago, Head & shoulder target achieved at 8000. Lets see how it goes. Nifty went upto 8550 to test neckline and then big leg down.

Nov 9, 2016

Note

Nov 9, 2016

Note

As mentioned last Friday that Nifty has broken Head & shoulder pattern with neckline at 8500-8550. Target is 8000. Today it made a low of 8000 & then recovered quickly. Today's price action was so swift that most traders couldn't catch this move either side (long or short). If anyone got then he must be either exceptionally brilliant or just lucky. Latter will be the case mostly. Now price action has somewhat confusing it can continue upmove towards 8900 or fall back and make higher bottom around 8200 (200 DMA).

Upon detail analysis of today's price action of many sectors & large cap stocks. Chances are that selling in select stocks (with exposure to cash economy) will continue. So I think we should test 200 DMA at 8200 again near upcoming big event (Fed rate hike) and after than from January onwards there should be a good rally till budget. Let's see how it goes. We will take one step at a time.