Observe_Think_Act_Think

Trade log NIFTY July 14

Short
NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
In my weekly view I had said

10580-10560 is a very important zone for me to watch. If NIFTY drops below this zone this week, I think NIFTY has started a bearish move, momentum of which is not known this time.
If NIFTY continues in the 10700-10920 zone for this week, then I think NIFTY may keep distributing in the zone for some time.
There is a possibility of a bull trap in this zone, sharp up move, which looks like a breakout of 10850, but it fails quickly in a day.


This all exactly played out. NIFTY actually tested the important zone of 10560-10580.
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In my view posted yesterday

I believe, gap up failed on upside breakout, now in next two sessions the other extreme of the range will be tested, that is 10700.
I’ll wait for a breakout now of this range. I’ll also not expect great momentum on breakout, mostly if it is upward towards 10900.


10700 Level tested and NIFTY also filled the gap.
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My Observations today

NIFTY closed down 1.81%. It formed a clear down trend candle and halted at the support zone .
BANK NIFTY closed 3.16% down. It is in downtrend.
VIX rose 5.48%. VIX is above 25.
Advance Decline ratio is 3 to 46. Market wide is 459 to 1426.
Option data showing downward shift of range to 10500-10700
FII and DII both sold heavily.

** So today, was the pivotal day on downside ** All things that I observe support the daily downtrend. That does not mean I understand how much NIFTY will fall from here. But all trades should be on the short side till close above 10820.

10450 and 10500 is expected to put up some support if NIFTY continues to go down.

My view for tomorrow

I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top.
I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820

My Weekly view , posted July 12

My Daily view, posted July 13

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