1)GLOBAL UPDATE -American markets are in focus globally -bearish trendline breakdown in weekly chart -bearish engulfing on weekly chart -fed meet on wednesday -80% have factored 75 bps rate hike -20% now are factoring 100 bps rate hike -wall street is preparing itself for the volatility -major central banks are seeing pressure and are raising rate
WHAT TO WATCHOUT FOR THIS WEEK -dollar index had rising from 107.8 to 109.8 -if we see a dollar index close above 111 on weekly chart -can be seen in fii selling pressure -market will not rise that easily *US-10Y BOND YIELD rising -Fii have started selling with high pressure again -rising dollar is the major cause of fii selling -major event on wednesday -volatility will remain high
INDIAN MARKET UPDATE -while our data remains positive we still have to catch up with global markets -if fed takes aggressive stance of wednesday we have a rbi policy following it -rbi will have to increase aggressively also to control the dollar rise -50 bps expected by rbi -can't forecast the market now -we will have to wait and watch the market
NIFTY TECHNICAL VIEW -dark cloud cover on weekly chart -divergence on daily chart -also possible double -or we might trade in the range of 17150-18100 -if we consolidate in the range of 17150-18100 it will be ideal for our posiitonal view for diwali -if market has formed a double top then it might be a trend reversal pattern -view will change once market closes below 17200 and final support of 200-dma moving average
NIFTY CRUCIAL SUPPORT 17450-17350-17200 RESISTANCE CRUCIAL SUPPORT 17750-17830-17950
BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE -divergence on daily chart -banknifty is relatively strong as compared to nifty -rising dollar will be a pain for financial stocks -if fii keep on the selling pressure we will also see banknifty fally -on weekly chart it seems like a shoorting start pattern -on daily chart we can see spinning top pattern -all signs of reversal -in any condition any correction in banknifty can be a buying opportunity
BANKNIFTY CRUCIAL SUPPORT 40300-39800-39400 BANKNIFTY CRUCUAIL RESISTANCE 41250-41500-41850
FORECAST -none -wait and watch approach this week
DISCLAIMER *my views are not trade recommendation *please consult your financial advisor *do not over trade *manage risk and manage risk appetite *for live market update click on the link in signature box *it my personal channel for live F&O TRADES
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BOTH NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY HAVE RESPECTED CRUCIAL SUPPORT LEVELS GIVEN ABOVE MAJOR EVENT ON WEDNESDAY TRADE LIGHT
have a similar wait and watch approach .. so have only a non directional trade open... we do have a TL coming in from the june lows on nifty close by .. and trading weekly candle on such large range's become tricky on both indices..