Thank you for kind appreciation. Received lot of encouraging comments. Thanks again.
The heart of my analysis for current times is shaped by single important factor - FII and FPI buy & sales figures. Let us see how they did today.
1) The provisional data shows that FIIs made net sale worth 126.65 Crs and DIIs did net buying of 398.53 Crs. Too low, right? Understand that these are NET figures ( Total FII/ FPI Buy value, provisional=6135 Crs; Total Sell value=6262 Crs.) and these are PROVISIONAL. Let us check final figures now.
FIIs were NET SELLERS in Equity by around 1462 Crs and in Index futures by around 1263 Crs and NET BUYERS in Stock futures by around 187 Crs. What does this tell us? The threat is not yet over. FIIs would still like to SELL! Where will it stop? Lets check option chain data for that.
2) Tomorrow we are starting new series, so options data has to be taken with a pinch of salt. On CALL side there is a bit of unwinding on 11350 (which was expected since NIFTY didn't break yesterday's Low today) strike but addition is seen on 11300 and 11400 strikes. But these are not yet populated enough. The total OI on these three strikes (11300,11350 & 11400) is coming as 37 lakhs, highest (14.75 lakhs) being at 11400. On PUT side, highest total OI of 10.06 lakhs is at 11200 and we see good fresh PUT writing on strikes of 11200 & 11250. This means that broadly range seems to be 11200 to 11400. To fine tune these limits, lets check technicals.
3) On charts,the scenario is almost same as was 2 days ago. Today also Nifty made almost identical high and Low as yesterday. But it openned lower (than yesterday's openning price) and closed even lower (than yesterday's closing price). So you have a RED candle with downward bias. Nifty is still below 200 DEMA, MACD line is not closing towards the signal line which means divergence persists and RSI is at 30.76 (still not in oversold area). One important point- Bank Nifty (BNF) made a kind of base candle wth identical high, higher low and ending marginally in green with close higher than yesterday's candle. This is important because any upmove in BNF will take NIFTY up too. In nutsell, it means highs (11240) will be tough to surpass but lows can become higher. So for tomorrow, SHORT but with smaller gains and smaller targets.
Levels are there on chart. Resistannce 1, I feel will be broken so take trade at R2. If it breaks try at R3 but if that breaks, stay away tomorrow.
The heart of my analysis for current times is shaped by single important factor - FII and FPI buy & sales figures. Let us see how they did today.
1) The provisional data shows that FIIs made net sale worth 126.65 Crs and DIIs did net buying of 398.53 Crs. Too low, right? Understand that these are NET figures ( Total FII/ FPI Buy value, provisional=6135 Crs; Total Sell value=6262 Crs.) and these are PROVISIONAL. Let us check final figures now.
FIIs were NET SELLERS in Equity by around 1462 Crs and in Index futures by around 1263 Crs and NET BUYERS in Stock futures by around 187 Crs. What does this tell us? The threat is not yet over. FIIs would still like to SELL! Where will it stop? Lets check option chain data for that.
2) Tomorrow we are starting new series, so options data has to be taken with a pinch of salt. On CALL side there is a bit of unwinding on 11350 (which was expected since NIFTY didn't break yesterday's Low today) strike but addition is seen on 11300 and 11400 strikes. But these are not yet populated enough. The total OI on these three strikes (11300,11350 & 11400) is coming as 37 lakhs, highest (14.75 lakhs) being at 11400. On PUT side, highest total OI of 10.06 lakhs is at 11200 and we see good fresh PUT writing on strikes of 11200 & 11250. This means that broadly range seems to be 11200 to 11400. To fine tune these limits, lets check technicals.
3) On charts,the scenario is almost same as was 2 days ago. Today also Nifty made almost identical high and Low as yesterday. But it openned lower (than yesterday's openning price) and closed even lower (than yesterday's closing price). So you have a RED candle with downward bias. Nifty is still below 200 DEMA, MACD line is not closing towards the signal line which means divergence persists and RSI is at 30.76 (still not in oversold area). One important point- Bank Nifty (BNF) made a kind of base candle wth identical high, higher low and ending marginally in green with close higher than yesterday's candle. This is important because any upmove in BNF will take NIFTY up too. In nutsell, it means highs (11240) will be tough to surpass but lows can become higher. So for tomorrow, SHORT but with smaller gains and smaller targets.
Levels are there on chart. Resistannce 1, I feel will be broken so take trade at R2. If it breaks try at R3 but if that breaks, stay away tomorrow.