I have a hard bias for mean reversion as this is the kind of setup wherein I like to sell call options. It is entirely possible for Nifty to go above red but that would be a fake breakout. My target for now is the green around 15450.
Thus, scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box in chart)…
Consolidation (Medium probability) Between 15600 and 15850
Downtrend (High probability) If breach below 15600; to drop till 15450
Uptrend (Low probability) If breach above 15850; to rise but not by much
The daily ATR of Nifty has been declining steadily and may bottom out in a couple of weeks. Low ATR is a pain for option sellers as they make safe money but not much money. Things shall become interesting when ATR turns its head upward again.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.